【SMM Analysis】Upstream Lithium Gains Drive Upstream Costs and Downstream Premiums for Recycled Battery Metals

This week, the prices of cobalt sulfate and nickel sulfate have started to rise, and the price of lithium carbonate has also continued to increase.

Recently, the spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate have continued to climb, with futures prices in particular seeing significant gains. Coupled with this week’s entry into the monthly rigid procurement period, the lithium point prices for LFP black powder have risen this week following the increase in lithium salt prices. After observing the supply-demand dynamics and policies related to lithium carbonate, upstream powder processing companies have become relatively optimistic about future prices. Their prices have also been adjusted in line with futures, showing a relatively strong upward trend. Taking LFP cathode black powder as an example, the current price range is 4,300–4,650 yuan per lithium point, representing a week-on-week increase. As for ternary black powder: the current nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary cathode black powder is 76–78%, up 0.5% week-on-week, while the lithium coefficient stands at 74–77%, reflecting a 1.5% week-on-week rise. The main reasons for these increases are the rising price of lithium carbonate this week and the relatively limited supply of lithium cobalt oxide black powder. Currently, most companies have relatively low cobalt inventories, and after clearing out old stock, they have had to purchase new materials from smelters, which has pushed prices upward. Additionally, there is some overseas demand for recycled cobalt-based products, and under conditions that satisfy traceability certification for recycled materials, certain recycled cobalt products can sometimes command a premium. Meanwhile, the price increase of lithium carbonate has gradually transmitted costs to the ternary and lithium cobalt oxide sectors, driving up the coefficients and prices of both ternary and lithium cobalt oxide black powder.