After Short-Term Adjustments, Iron Ore Prices Still Have Upside Potential [SMM Brief Review]

Published: Dec 30, 2025 17:28

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Iron ore futures retreated from highs and remained in the doldrums throughout the day. The most-traded contract I2605 closed at 789, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. Traders sold at market prices, while steel mills procured at lower levels, with inquiries increasing. Market transaction sentiment was moderate. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 793–800 yuan, down 3–7 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Hebei, PB fines traded at 810–820 yuan/mt, up 2–5 yuan/mt from yesterday.

According to SMM blast furnace maintenance impact data, the impact from maintenance this week was 1.856 million mt, down 79,000 mt WoW. Although Hebei remains under environmental protection-driven production restrictions, the current restrictions are slightly looser than the previous round, mainly involving a 30% production limit on sintering machines, with no impact on blast furnaces. Entering January, some blast furnaces under maintenance have production resumption plans. Coupled with strengthened expectations for pre-holiday stockpiling and relatively optimistic macro news, market sentiment improved, driving iron ore prices to fluctuate upward. Ore prices are expected to maintain upward momentum after the holiday.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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