[SMM Analysis] Macro Sentiment and Cost Support Drive High-Grade NPI into an Upward Trend

Published: Dec 26, 2025 18:52

Source: SMM

Save

The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 8.6 yuan/mtu WoW to 894 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesia NPI FOB index price increased 1.19 $/mtu WoW to 111.65 $/mtu. SHFE nickel surged this week, and driven by macro tailwinds, stainless steel futures and spot prices also climbed. Transaction prices for high-grade NPI rebounded noticeably, with market activity improving significantly.

Supply side, macro sentiment and cost support spurred upstream players to hold prices firm. With the price uptrend relatively clear, participation from upstream and downstream enterprises and traders increased markedly, market trading activity recovered, providing a floor for high-grade NPI prices. Demand side, stainless steel spot prices rose, and approaching year-end, some steel mills had restocking needs, while traders' stockpiling sentiment also picked up. Overall, market sentiment recovered, upstream and downstream activity improved significantly, and high-grade NPI transaction prices increased, with further upside room expected in the near term.

From the perspective of NPI conversion to high-grade nickel matte, refined nickel prices surged this week, and high-grade NPI prices also rose WoW. The average discount of high-grade NPI to refined nickel widened to 342.95 yuan/mtu. High-grade NPI prices are expected to continue rising next week, while refined nickel average prices also have support. The average discount of high-grade NPI to refined nickel is expected to remain high, and the likelihood of NPI conversion is anticipated to increase.

Calculated based on nickel ore prices from 25 days ago, cash costs for high-grade NPI smelters continued to recover this week. Raw material side, ore prices from Indonesia and the Philippines held steady, while auxiliary material prices continued to decline, leading to a continued downtrend in high-grade NPI production costs. Concurrently, high-grade NPI prices rebounded significantly, allowing smelter profits to recover. Looking ahead to next week, raw material side, ore prices are expected to remain stable, auxiliary material prices are forecast to continue falling, and production costs are projected to keep decreasing. Meanwhile, high-grade NPI prices still have room to rise, suggesting smelter profits will continue to improve.

NPI

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

10 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Fu'an Aims for $246B in Stainless Steel Output by 2026, Advances 600,000-Ton CR Project

According to the Fu'an City Development and Reform Bureau, as outlined in its 2026 economic and social development plan released on March 6, the city is set to continuously consolidate its leading advantage in the stainless steel new materials industry. A key focus for the year is accelerating the construction and implementation of major downstream projects, specifically highlighting Runhengxin's 600,000-ton stainless steel cold-rolling project and a new titanium alloy materials manufacturing industrial park. Through these strategic capacity expansions, Fu'an aims to push the total output value of its stainless steel new materials industry to 246 billion RMB in 2026, targeting a year-on-year growth rate of over 5%.

10 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] Fujian Tsingshan's Stainless Steel Deep Processing Project Receives Construction Permit

According to the Zhouning County Natural Resources Bureau, the Fujian Tsingshan Special Materials stainless steel deep processing project officially received its construction engineering planning permit on February 14, 2026. The major facility, covering a land area of over 207,700 square meters with a total construction area of approximately 156,482 square meters, marks a significant step forward in capacity expansion for the Tsingshan-affiliated entity in Fujian province, further solidifying its downstream processing footprint.

10 hours ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Fastener Distributors Warn CBAM Acts as Penalty Tariff; Import Costs Surge Up to 50%

According to EFDA, the CBAM is severely penalizing importers of screws, nuts, and other fasteners, with costs reportedly surging by 30% to 50% since the mechanism took full effect in January 2026. The EFDA attributes this drastic cost increase to structural failures by the European Commission, specifically the absence of a functioning verification system that forces importers to rely on exorbitantly high default emissions values rather than actual data. This issue is heavily compounded by a severe shortage of certified verifiers, whose accreditation is delayed until summer 2027. Warning that these bureaucratic complexities are threatening the global competitiveness of European end products like automobiles and machinery.

10 hours ago