[SMM Survey] Steel Mill Winter Stockpiling Likely to Peak in the Second Half of January

Published: Dec 26, 2025 18:22

Source: SMM

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According to incomplete statistics, as of December 26, nine steel mills have announced winter stockpiling policies for 2026, including four in Northwest China, three in North China, and two in Northeast China.

I. Update on Steel Mills' Winter Stockpiling Policies for 2026
According to incomplete statistics, as of December 26, nine steel mills have announced winter stockpiling policies for 2026, including four in Northwest China, three in North China, and two in Northeast China. Based on the policies released so far, most mills have introduced post-settlement pricing models, with some offering warehousing financing services. In terms of pricing, individual mills in North China proposed a collection price of 3,200 yuan/mt for straight rebar, while some in Northwest China set a base collection price at 2,900 yuan/mt.

II. Winter Stockpiling Activities Are Expected to Concentrate in Mid-to-Late January 2026
Historically, social inventory of rebar begins to accumulate rapidly about four weeks before the Chinese New Year, as traders gradually engage in winter stockpiling. With the 2026 Chinese New Year falling on February 17, winter stockpiling policy announcements from steel mills are expected to concentrate in January, and market stockpiling activities are likely to peak in mid-to-late January.

Current market feedback generally indicates that winter stockpiling prices are expected to be lower than last year, with operations leaning more toward passive stockpiling. However, it is still too early to determine the specifics of winter stockpiling. Please stay tuned for further updates from SMM.

Steel

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