Structural Divergence in the Titanium Industry Chain Continues, with Multiple Variables Influencing Future Market Trends [SMM Titanium Weekly Review]

Titanium Concentrate

This week, mainstream quotations for domestic titanium concentrate (TiO2≥46%) were 1,580-1,650 yuan/mt, with an average price of 1,615 yuan/mt; quotations for the TiO2≥47% specification were 1,900-2,050 yuan/mt, with an average price of 1,975 yuan/mt.

The titanium concentrate market remained in the doldrums overall this week. Operating rates in the downstream titanium dioxide industry remained stable. However, affected by persistently high sulphuric acid prices, production costs for sulphuric acid-based titanium dioxide remained under pressure, strengthening the desire to bargain down prices for titanium concentrate procurement. Since Q4, arrivals of imported ore increased slightly, and overall quotations gradually approached the level of domestic ore, further prompting titanium dioxide enterprises to push for lower prices in procurement. Titanium concentrate prices are expected to remain weakly stable in the near term. It is reported that if domestic mines implement production cuts next year, it may provide some support for domestic ore prices and drive a price recovery.

Titanium Dioxide

This week, domestic titanium dioxide prices were as follows: anatase titanium dioxide quotations were 12,100-12,500 yuan/mt, averaging 12,300 yuan/mt; rutile titanium dioxide quotations were 12,800-14,200 yuan/mt, averaging 13,300 yuan/mt; and domestic chloride process titanium dioxide quotations were 13,600-17,000 yuan/mt, averaging 15,300 yuan/mt.

The titanium dioxide industry collectively raised quotations this week. The main reason is that within the current market structure dominated by the sulphuric acid process, sulphuric acid prices have been consolidating at high levels, causing titanium dioxide enterprises to continuously face operational losses in H2, forcing them to raise prices again. According to the SMM survey, titanium dioxide enterprises had good order status in November. Although previously issued price increase letters raised market expectations of 'rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn', most actual order signing still executed pre-increase prices. Since this month, driven by a recovery in the foreign trade market, enterprises have mainly focused on executing foreign trade orders and contracts signed in November. The current industry operating rate remains stable, and overall inventory is at a low level. Consequently, most enterprises chose to raise new order quotations after issuing secondary price adjustment notices to observe subsequent market demand feedback. Additionally, some enterprises in regions like Guangxi plan to conduct pre-Chinese New Year production cuts and maintenance next month, which may provide some support to the supply side.

Titanium Slag

This week, acid-soluble titanium slag (Sichuan) quotations were 5,820-5,845 yuan/mt; mainstream quotations for regular 90-grade titanium slag were 5,200-5,400 yuan/mt.

The titanium slag market remained under pressure recently, with prices consolidating at low levels. Supply side, titanium slag enterprises maintained low operating rates. Demand side, performance was relatively mediocre, with downstream procurement mostly consisting of small-batch rigid demand, resulting in insufficient overall demand release. Overall, demand support for the titanium slag market is weak, and titanium slag prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom.

Sponge Titanium

This week, Grade 0 sponge titanium quotations were 46,000-48,000 yuan/mt, averaging 47,000 yuan/mt; the average FOB price for Grade 0 sponge titanium was $6,650/mt; Grade 1 sponge titanium quotations were 45,000-47,000 yuan/mt, averaging 46,000 yuan/mt; Grade 2 sponge titanium quotations were 44,000-46,000 yuan/mt, averaging 45,000 yuan/mt.

The titanium sponge market operated steadily this week, with prices edging up slightly. Current mainstream quotations for grade 0 titanium sponge held steady in the range of 46,000-47,000 yuan/mt. Market trading activity was moderate, but producer inventories were generally low, and the supply side showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, providing support. Downstream demand remained generally stable, with enterprises primarily fulfilling existing orders and maintaining steady production schedules; prices are expected to stay firm in the short term. However, titanium product exports have declined significantly since November, leading to an overall softening in demand; the titanium sponge market is expected to be in the doldrums going forward.

Titanium Products

This week, TA1 titanium ingot prices were 55-56 yuan/kg, TA2 titanium ingot prices were 53-54 yuan/kg, and TC4 prices were 60-61 yuan/kg. Hot-rolled titanium plate (3-8mm) was quoted at 62-63 yuan/kg, titanium welded tubes at 115-125 yuan/kg, pure titanium bars at 100-105 yuan/kg, and pure alloy bars at 115-125 yuan/kg.

The titanium products market showed structural divergence this week. Procurement demand for high-end titanium sponge in the aerospace sector remained robust, while demand in the civil market was lackluster. Overall, the titanium products market was in a supply-demand balance. Supported by the cost side, prices for some products were raised slightly and are expected to remain firm going forward, underpinned by raw material prices.

Weekly Summary

Performance across the titanium industry chain was divergent this week, presenting an overall pattern of "mostly weak, with some areas firm." Supply and demand side: titanium concentrate demand was under pressure from downstream pushes for lower prices and the impact of imported ore; titanium dioxide enterprises had good orders and low inventories, operating stably; titanium slag demand release was insufficient, with enterprises operating at low rates; titanium sponge inventories were low but trading activity was moderate, with the downstream primarily fulfilling existing orders; titanium products showed structural divergence, with strong high-end demand from aerospace but weak civil demand, resulting in an overall supply-demand balance. Supply and demand side, titanium concentrate demand was under pressure from titanium dioxide enterprises pushing for lower prices and increased arrivals of imported ore; titanium dioxide enterprises raised prices due to high sulphuric acid cost pressure, enjoyed good orders and low inventories, and operated stably; titanium slag enterprises operated at low rates with downstream purchasing small batches for rigid demand, indicating insufficient demand release; titanium sponge enterprises had low inventories supporting firm prices, trading activity was moderate, and the downstream primarily fulfilled existing orders; titanium products saw robust high-end demand from aerospace but weak civil demand, maintaining an overall supply-demand balance.

The outlook for the titanium industry chain is divergent. Titanium concentrate is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term, suppressed by titanium dioxide enterprises pushing for lower purchase prices and increased arrivals of imported ore; production cuts at domestic mines next year may provide price support. Titanium dioxide prices were pushed up by high sulphuric acid cost pressure; low inventories coupled with production cuts and maintenance at enterprises in Guangxi and other regions next month may support supply, while new order quotations were raised as the market watches for demand feedback. Titanium slag demand lacks support, consolidating at the bottom. Sponge titanium prices remain firm in the short term due to low inventory, but titanium product export declines will lead to subsequent weakness. The titanium product market shows structural divergence, with robust high-end demand in aerospace supported by raw materials keeping prices firm. Overall, cost and the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers dominate the market, with each product's trend diverging according to its own supply-demand pattern.