[SMM Analysis] China’s Petroleum Coke Imports Keep Falling amid Accelerating Capacity Release and Shrinking Demand

SMM Dec. 25:

According to customs data, China’s petroleum coke imports in November 2025 stood at 905,500 mt, down 20.04% MoM and down 14.62% YoY. The estimated average import price of petroleum coke in November was $233.25/mt, up 3.66% MoM and up 50.75% YoY. China’s total petroleum coke imports from January to November 2025 amounted to about 13,991,600 mt, up 12.69% YoY.

By source country, China’s major petroleum coke import origins in November 2025 were Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and the US, with imports (share of total) at 146,300 mt (16%), 137,800 mt (15%), and 130,600 mt (14%), respectively.

On the import price front, petroleum coke import prices mostly increased in November 2025. The average import price in October was about $233.25/mt, up 3.66% MoM. Prices of petroleum coke imported from Germany, Brazil, and Argentina rose significantly, with increases exceeding $65/mt, while prices of imports from Canada and Belgium fell noticeably, down $25-50/mt.

Since Q4, China’s petroleum coke market supply side has shown a two-way divergence characterized by accelerated domestic capacity release and shrinking import supply. The supply-demand pattern is undergoing periodic adjustments. Domestically, refinery maintenance pace slowed significantly in Q4, with a sharp drop in new maintenance plans, while production resumptions at previously idled refineries accelerated. Some long-term idled enterprises also gradually resumed production, leading to a continued rebound in domestic petroleum coke output and a gradually emerging incremental effect from local supply.Demand side, since December, downstream enterprises showed increasing fear of high prices and buying sentiment slowed, resulting in a marginal weakening of overall demand. Due to insufficient support from both supply and demand, domestic petroleum coke prices started a continuous downward trend. Port petroleum coke offers declined accordingly, and the pace of port spot cargoes shipments slowed noticeably. Against the backdrop of an overall weak domestic fundamental, petroleum coke imports in December are expected to continue declining.