Since Q4, China’s petroleum coke market supply side has shown a two-way divergence characterized by accelerated domestic capacity release and shrinking import supply. The supply-demand pattern is undergoing periodic adjustments. Domestically, refinery maintenance pace slowed significantly in Q4, with a sharp drop in new maintenance plans, while production resumptions at previously idled refineries accelerated. Some long-term idled enterprises also gradually resumed production, leading to a continued rebound in domestic petroleum coke output and a gradually emerging incremental effect from local supply.Demand side, since December, downstream enterprises showed increasing fear of high prices and buying sentiment slowed, resulting in a marginal weakening of overall demand. Due to insufficient support from both supply and demand, domestic petroleum coke prices started a continuous downward trend. Port petroleum coke offers declined accordingly, and the pace of port spot cargoes shipments slowed noticeably. Against the backdrop of an overall weak domestic fundamental, petroleum coke imports in December are expected to continue declining.

Based on SMM calculations, full-year exports are expected to reach around 2.28 million mt, continuing the growth trend. Looking ahead to 2026, supported by demand growth driven by continued expansion of overseas aluminum capacity, SMM expects China's prebaked anode exports to maintain growth, with the export increase expected to exceed 7%, and total exports climbing to around 2.45 million mt.

[SMM Analysis]Cost and Demand Game Continues, Secondary Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs in the Short Term

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Macro Tailwinds but Weakening Fundamentals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Continue Fluctuating at Highs in the Short Term]

This week, aluminum prices rose again, trading above the monthly average. Coupled with inventory buildup, processing fees for aluminum billets in Wuxi and Nanchang came under significant pressure WoW. However, aluminum billet inventory in South China remained at a historically low level of less than 20kt, supporting firm local processing fees. Processing fees in Foshan were quoted at 380–430 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt WoW; in Wuxi at 150–230 yuan/mt, down 100–150 yuan/mt; and in Nanchang at 90–140 yuan/mt, down 110 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Domestic and Overseas Liquidity Easing Supports Aluminum Prices to Hover at Highs] Overall, on the macro front, both domestic and overseas macro sentiment leans positive, with market expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts strengthening, which is bullish for aluminum prices and the non-ferrous metals sector. On the fundamental side, the domestic fundamentals currently struggle to provide strong support for sustained aluminum price increases, as end-use demand remains weak and the proportion of liquid aluminum declines accordingly. In summary, although fundamental drivers are limited, the macro performance both domestically and overseas remains optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Surge to Highs, Driving Active Follow-on Increases in Alloy Prices] Spot market, SMM A00 aluminum price surged by 160 yuan/mt to 22,030 yuan/mt, while ADC12 price rose rapidly by 150 yuan/mt to 21,950 yuan/mt. Aluminum prices climbed back above 22,000 yuan/mt, driving secondary aluminum prices to actively increase. Currently, raw material supply is relatively tight, coupled with secondary aluminum enterprises entering a stockpiling phase, aluminum scrap demand has risen, leading to rapid price increases and pushing up ADC12 costs. Additionally, copper prices hit a new high of 94,690 yuan/mt, driving significant price increases for aluminum tense scrap and high-copper-content alloy ingots. However, demand side is marginally weakening, with overall market transactions performing sluggishly; supply side, affected by environmental protection-related controls or losses, still faces reduction pressure. Overall, cost support and supply tightening jointly solidify the price floor, but demand slowdown and aluminum prices fluctuating at highs are suppressing downstream purchase willingness. ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term.