2025 Solid-State Battery Review: Insights Reborn

SMM December 24 News:
Key Points: As 2025 draws to a close, the solid-state battery industry has transitioned from eager anticipation at the beginning of the year to the submission of answers by six major schools of thought. The widespread enthusiasm for solid-state batteries has led to enterprises associated with the technology gaining significant capital favour, driving up the value of solid-state battery stocks. The industry is striving to move beyond the singular "technology-first" laboratory narrative and embark on a journey toward "mass production verification, supply chain construction, and commercial implementation." Clear policy guidance from various countries, the initial emergence of industry chain divisions, and deep integration between capital and industry giants indicate that the competition for dominance in next-generation battery technology has intensified.
Preface: The ultimate question in the energy storage world remains unanswered. The following questions will continue to be explored: the ambivalent expectations for solid-state batteries and the wait for what is yet to come have allowed the global solid-state battery industry to gradually surge amid the flow of time. Those who remain calm and persistent will ultimately reach the summit. Solid-state batteries are not a dream; revisiting the "solid" foundation brings new insights. While 2025 brought both hope and regret, 2026 will continue to advance with determination, steadfastly awaiting the dawn.

Question 1: How Far Is the Gap From Pilot Lines in the Lab to Mass Production?
Question 2: When Will Commercially Competitive Wh Costs Be Achieved?
Question 3: Which Segment Is the Key to Mass Production of Solid-State Batteries?
Question 4: Which Application Scenario Will Anchor the Solid-State Battery Market First?
Question 5: Which Enterprises in the Industry Chain Will Be the First to Benefit?

With these questions in mind, let us review 2025, where the dream began, and look ahead to 2026, the poetry and the horizon.

The discussion is divided into five sections: Policy, Domestic, Overseas, Outlook, and SMM Data Tracking.

I. Global Policy Environment: Still "Solid as Ever"

1. China: Policy Guidance Shifts from Macro-Level Encouragement to Specific Support for Systematic Development and Core Technology Breakthroughs.

National Level: The MIIT issued the "Notice on Further Accelerating the Systematic Layout and High-Level Construction of Pilot Platforms in the Manufacturing Industry," explicitly listing solid-state batteries and their key materials (electrolyte, high-nickel cathode, silicon-based anode) as key construction directions, aiming to bridge the "valley of death" from laboratory to factory. The NDRC and the National Energy Administration also issued documents supporting the iteration of new-type energy storage technologies, paving the way for the application of solid-state batteries in the ESS market.

Local Level: Zhuhai, Guangxi, and other localities have introduced special industrial development action plans, providing systematic support in terms of land, funding, and project introduction, marking the industry's layout entering a new stage of "local competition and specialized clusters."

2. Overseas: Clear Goal Orientation, Concentrating Resources to Build Local Competitiveness.

South Korea: Announced the "K-Battery" plan, aiming to increase its global battery market share to 25% by 2030. The core pathway is shifting from price competition to next-generation technology (all-solid-state, lithium-metal batteries) competition, and plans to invest approximately 280 billion won (about 1.35 billion yuan) to support related R&D.

EU/US: Through existing frameworks such as the EU Battery Regulation and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), they continue to profoundly influence the global solid-state battery industry's layout and cooperation models via market access, tax incentives, and supply chain localization requirements.

EU: The IPCEI Batteries III (2025-2027) solid-state battery project received 400 million euros in subsidies; Germany's "Solid-State Battery Roadmap 2035" specifies the vehicle-grade mass production period for 2028-2030.
US: The DOE's "Battery500" 2025 phase target achieved (>500 Wh/kg, cycles >1,000); Factorial, Solid Power, and others received federal funding.

II. Domestic Full-Chain Progress: Comprehensive Breakthroughs from Materials to Application, "Solid" as a Rock.

1. Core Materials: Sulfide Route Becomes the Focus, Integrated Layout Becomes Key

1) Electrolyte - Sulfide Electrolyte and Raw Materials (Lithium Sulfide): Industrialisation Progress Significantly Exceeds Expectations, Becoming the Year's Biggest Highlight.

Capacity Construction: Multiple production lines, including those from Yanyan New Materials (500 mt/year) and Zhongke Guneng (hundreds of mt level), have announced commissioning or completed verification, marking the transition of sulfide electrolytes from "gram-level" laboratory samples to the "ton-level" stable supply stage.

Raw Material Security: Upstream lithium chemicals and phosphorous chemical giants such as Tianqi Lithium Industry, Yahua Group, Xingfa Group, and Foshan Plastics Technology have announced plans to construct high-purity lithium sulfide or phosphorus pentasulfide production lines ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands of mt (expected to be operational in 2026-2027), aiming to control core raw materials and reduce costs.

Oxide Electrolyte: Enterprises including Easpring Technology (planned 3,000 mt), XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen) (already supplying), Xin'an Shares, and Boyi have announced mass production or achieved key breakthroughs, primarily for use in semi-solid-state batteries or as part of composite electrolytes.

2) Cathode Materials: Evolving Towards Ultra-High Nickel and Lithium-Rich Manganese-Based, Such as Ni90

Easpring Technology and Ronbay Technology announced that their 9-series high-nickel/lithium-rich manganese-based cathode materials have achieved shipments from the ton-level to 10-ton level and have been introduced to leading battery manufacturers.

Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate (LMFP) (Jinlongyu plans tens of thousands of mt) is regarded as an important cathode option for semi-solid-state batteries.

3) Anode Materials: Silicon-Based Anode is the Consensus Direction.

Enterprises such as Tianmu Xiandao, Huayi Qingchuang, and Jiangxin New Materials are actively expanding production of silicon carbon anodes, targeting significant cost reductions (some companies claim reaching 40-55% of the market price).

Lithium metal anodes are beginning to move from pilot testing to planning stages, such as Chongqing Lide Energy signing a 5,000 mt composite lithium metal anode project.

2. Battery Manufacturing: Technology Routes Diverge, Mass Production Timetable Approaches

1) Semi-Solid-State Battery: Pioneer Application

High-capacity (280Ah+) lithium iron phosphate (LFP) semi-solid-state batteries from Qingtao Energy and WELION New Energy have obtained certification from the China Classification Society (CCS) and are being applied in the 200MW/800MWh energy storage project in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, commencing large-scale commercial operation. Consumer Electronics: Sunwoda's semi-solid-state batteries for consumer use have exceeded 10 million units in mass production, with vivo phones equipped with 7000mAh semi-solid-state batteries, indicating that the technology has achieved economic viability and reliability in the 3C sector.

2) All-Solid-State Batteries: Showcasing the Future

Automakers such as SAIC (in collaboration with Qingtao), Chery, and GAC have announced plans to achieve mass production and installation of all-solid-state batteries by 2027-2028.

Battery companies including Gotion High-tech (Jinshi Battery), SVOLT Energy Technology, TAILAN New Energy, and Sanwei Battery are actively advancing pilot line construction or mass production line design (at a scale of 0.2GWh to 2GWh).

3. Equipment and Supporting Facilities: Tools for Mass Production

Dry Electrode: Huacai Technology's solution has been validated by top automakers, while Huson Technology is planning to build a full solid-state production line using dry electrode technology, which is widely regarded as key to addressing the cost and performance issues of solid-state electrodes.

Isostatic Pressing Equipment: Lyric, in partnership with Sweden's Quintus, is developing specialized equipment to solve the densification challenges of solid-state battery cells.

Current Collector: Sanfu New Materials has released a 3D composite current collector (Cu) to adapt to the solid-state battery system.

4. Capital Cooperation: Alliance for Coexistence

Active Financing: WELION New Energy has completed its D+ round of financing, introducing state-owned capital such as the Beijing Green Energy Fund; Enpower Greentech has completed a B+ round of financing worth hundreds of millions. The deep involvement of state-owned and industrial capital provides support for commercialization.

Cross-Sector Collaboration Becomes the Norm:

Vertical Integration: Partnerships between battery manufacturers and material suppliers (such as SVOLT Energy & HSC New Energy Materials developing sulphide electrolytes), and between automakers and battery manufacturers (such as Chery & Horizon Robotics) for joint R&D.

Horizontal Alliances: Collaborations among material enterprises (such as GEM & XTC New Energy Materials (Xiamen)), and regional partnerships (such as Xin Hao Hai Technology & South Korea's DATAMKOREA) to expand market reach.

III. Overseas Dynamics: Giants Form Alliances, Seizing Technological High Grounds

1. Technology Roadmap: Sulfide-based approaches remain the primary focus of intensive R&D efforts, while progress has also been made in polymer-based routes.

2. Corporate Developments: Multiple Players in the US, Europe, Japan, and South Korea Advance Solid-State Battery Initiatives

QuantumScape (US): Key equipment installation for the QSE-5 "Falcon" production line has been completed, marking a substantial step toward automotive-grade mass production.

Solid Power (US): Entered into a tripartite agreement with Samsung SDI and BMW, clarifying division of labor (electrolyte–battery cell–vehicle) and establishing a comprehensive industrialisation alliance spanning from materials to vehicles.

Factorial (US): Collaborated with South Korea's POSCO Future M, combining the former's battery technology with the latter's strengths in cathode and anode materials.

Nissan: Partnered with LiCAP to introduce "activated dry electrode" technology, targeting mass production of all-solid-state battery vehicles by fiscal year 2028.

South Korea: LG Chem unveiled spray recrystallisation technology to enhance performance; Solivis completed its sulfide electrolyte production line and commenced shipments, with prices significantly reduced.

Collaboration Characteristics: Enterprises in Japan and South Korea maintain close cooperation, generally adopting a closed alliance model of "materials–battery–vehicle" to rapidly establish a controllable, complete supply chain.

IV. 2026 Outlook and Forecast: Still Waiting

1. Capacity Upgrade: Taking the First Step While Waiting.

Sulphide electrolyte capacity will rapidly scale up from the "metric ton level" to the "hundred-metric ton level," with the planned kt-level capacities of several enterprises entering the construction phase. Pilot lines (0.1-0.5 GWh) for all-solid-state batteries will be collectively commissioned and produce the first batch of prototype batteries for automotive qualification testing.

Initial Signs of Cost and Price Wars: As material capacity is released and processes are optimized, the cost reduction curve for solid-state batteries (especially semi-solid-state) will become steeper. The prices of key raw materials such as lithium sulphide and phosphorus pentasulphide will become an industry focus. SMM will begin reporting battery-grade phosphorus pentasulphide prices in 2026.

2. Clear Division of Application Scenarios:

1) Semi-Solid-State Batteries: Will achieve batch commercialisation in high-end EVs, aircraft (eVTOL), and the LDES sector, becoming the market mainstream.

2) All-Solid-State Batteries: Focus will be on completing vehicle integration validation; the first luxury EV models equipped with them will be launched, but production scale will remain limited.

Establishment of Standards and Certification Systems: The national standard for battery classification (liquid / solid-liquid hybrid / all-solid-state) promoted by the China Automotive Technology and Research Center will be further refined, and dedicated safety certification systems for sectors such as aviation and shipping will accelerate their formation.

Accelerated Industry Consolidation: Competition among technological pathways will put pressure on some startups. Enterprises possessing core material technology, mass production processes, or strong end-user alliances will stand out. The trend of giants integrating the industry chain through investments and mergers & acquisitions will become more pronounced (e.g., CATL acquiring a stake in Canmax).

In 2025, the solid-state battery industry completed a crucial shift from "storytelling" to "capability building." In 2026, the industry's core mission will be to "streamline mass production processes, validate product reliability, and reduce overall costs." An industrialisation marathon, decisive for the global battery landscape over the next decade, has entered its most critical curved segment.

V. SMM Materials Market Review

1. Lithium Sulfide and Electrolytes

1) Lithium sulfide prices declined throughout the year, dropping from 4,000 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to around 2,000 yuan/kg by year-end. Global production was 30-40 mt, with domestic output accounting for 80%. Production is expected to reach around 80 mt next year, with prices falling below 1,500 yuan/kg.

2) Prices for sulfide electrolyte LPSC and oxide electrolyte LATP also declined. LPSC fell from 20,000 yuan/kg at the start of the year to about 10,000 yuan/kg by year-end, and is projected to halve again to 5,000 yuan/kg by 2026. LATP dropped from 450 yuan/kg to 120 yuan/kg. With numerous LATP producers and low barriers to entry, price competition is intense. The price is expected to break below 100 yuan/kg in 2026, entering the 50 yuan/kg range.

2. Cathode and Anode Materials

1) Lithium chemicals: Prices for lithium chemicals fell initially and then rebounded during the year, driving down lithium metal prices. In 2026, as lithium metal finds application in solid-state batteries, its price is expected to decline rapidly.

2) Cathode materials: Current applications primarily focus on high-nickel NMC 8-series and LFP in semi-solid-state batteries. Market prices are highly competitive, with NMC being profitable while LFP mostly operates at a loss. In 2026, LFP is expected to reverse losses and turn a profit, adopting an anti-involution stance. All-solid-state batteries mainly use products with nickel content above 90% for verification and small-batch production. Traditional NMC producers like Easpring and Ronbay have shipments at the 10-mt level, which are projected to exceed 100 mt in 2026.

3) Silicon-carbon and lithium metal anodes: The main materials used in semi-solid-state and all-solid-state batteries are silicon-carbon and lithium metal anodes. Silicon-carbon is currently blended with existing battery systems, achieving some market shipments, while lithium metal is primarily in the market verification stage for application in the all-solid-state battery industry.

Raw material summary: Medium and long-term, prices are expected to trend downward to meet the cost-reduction demands of the downstream solid-state battery market. In 2026, the volume applied in all-solid-state batteries will advance from the 10-mt level toward the 100-mt level, focusing on verification, experimentation, and small-batch applications.

According to SMM forecasts, all-solid-state battery shipments will reach 13.5 GWh by 2028, while semi-solid-state battery shipments will reach 160 GWh. Global lithium-ion battery demand is projected to reach approximately 2,800 GWh by 2030, with the EV sector's lithium-ion battery demand showing a CAGR of around 11% from 2024 to 2030, ESS lithium-ion battery demand at a CAGR of about 27%, and consumer electronics lithium battery demand at a CAGR of roughly 10%. Global solid-state battery penetration is estimated at about 0.1% in 2025, with all-solid-state battery penetration expected to reach around 4% by 2030, and global solid-state battery penetration potentially approaching 10% by 2035.

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