【SMM Nickel News】

Published: Dec 24, 2025 09:05

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Recently, non-ferrous metals have seen a broad-based rally. Nickel, having previously traded at its lowest level in nearly five years, has attracted widespread investor attention. After Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, announced plans to significantly reduce its RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026, expectations for production cuts on the supply side strongly stimulated bullish sentiment, driving a sharp increase in global nickel prices. On the night of December 23, nickel futures surged straight after the night session opened, with LME nickel rising by up to 4.65%, approaching the $16,000/mt level. According to SMM, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has indeed begun tightening nickel ore supply from the "supply side," though the final implementation method awaits further confirmation.
Spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel reached 125,250 yuan/mt, with a gain of over 10,000 yuan/mt in five days. However, recent spot market transactions have been weak, and the sharp rise in nickel prices has further dampened downstream purchase willingness. The fundamental reality of high inventory and weak demand for nickel remains unchanged. LME nickel inventory stands as high as 253,000 mt, SMM's social inventory of refined nickel has reached 59,000 mt, and SMM forecasts a global primary nickel surplus of over 120,000 mt in 2026. The sustainability and upside potential of this expectation-driven rebound may face challenges.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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