【SMM Analysis】Market Overview: Divergent Price Trends in Lithium and Cobalt Sulfate with Cost Pressures Building Up

This week, the price of cobalt sulfate saw a modest increase, while the price of nickel sulfate remained largely flat, and the price of lithium carbonate continued its upward trend.

Recently, lithium carbonate prices have been significantly influenced by market sentiment, although there has been no major shift in its fundamental supply and demand. Following the rise in lithium salt prices, the price of black mass (from LFP batteries) per lithium point also increased this week. Upstream recycling companies, after observing the supply-demand dynamics and policy landscape for lithium carbonate, hold a relatively optimistic outlook on future prices. Although prices have been adjusted in line with futures trading, the upward momentum has been strong. Taking black mass from LFP battery electrode scraps as an example, the current price ranges from 3,750 to 3,950 RMB per lithium point, marking a week-on-week increase. For black mass from ternary battery scraps, the current recovery rate coefficients stand at 75.5–77.5% for nickel and cobalt, up 0.25% week-on-week, while the lithium coefficient remains stable at 73–75%.This is mainly attributed to the ongoing price increase in cobalt sulfate this week: most companies hold relatively limited cobalt inventory, and after clearing out old stock, they have had to purchase new material from smelters, driving prices upward. The rising costs of cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate are gradually being passed down to the ternary and lithium cobalt oxide battery recycling sectors, leading to increases in both the recovery coefficients and prices for black mass from ternary and lithium cobalt oxide batteries.