SMM Sheets & Plates Daily Review: Cold-rolled & hot-rolled prices fluctuate rangebound, overall trading weak intraday.

Published: Dec 19, 2025 18:10

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Hot-rolled coil prices strengthened this week, with the price center moving higher; overall trading improved slightly. Supply side, maintenance at steel mill hot-rolling lines increased further this week, leading to a further reduction in hot-rolled coil production. Demand side, market demand was in the off-season this week, and weekly apparent demand for hot-rolled coils weakened. Inventory side, SMM statistics showed national social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 86 warehouses (large sample) was 3.9955 million mt, down 122,200 mt WoW, a decrease of 2.97% WoW; national social inventory continued destocking this week. Cost side, coke prices held steady this week, while iron ore prices rose, strengthening cost support for hot-rolled coils. Macro news, rumors of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts by the PBOC increased, including a 25-bp LPR cut and a 50-bp RRR cut, boosting market sentiment and benefiting commodity prices. Looking ahead, coke prices are expected to fall next week, while iron ore prices are anticipated to rise; hot-rolled coil costs may change narrowly. Additionally, pre-holiday restocking demand is expected to release appropriately, and hot-rolled coil inventory may continue destocking, providing support for spot hot-rolled coil prices. The most-traded hot-rolled coil contract is forecast to trade in the 3,230-3,330 range next week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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