How will the global zinc concentrate supply-demand structure look in 2026? [SMM analysis]

SMM Dec 28 News:

Time flies, and the end of 2025 is approaching. This year marks a concentrated production ramp-up period for overseas zinc concentrates, with overall global zinc concentrate production up over 600,000 mt in metal content YoY. Overseas zinc concentrate contributed 550,000 mt in metal content of this growth. The significant increase in supply has noticeably eased the global zinc concentrate balance compared to last year, and the overall center of zinc concentrate TCs has rebounded from 2024. As 2026 approaches, how will the global zinc concentrate supply-demand structure evolve next year? How will TCs move？

Supply side:

Overseas zinc concentrates. Entering 2026, although mines like Oz and Kipushi continue to ramp up production, output from Antamina, Red Dog, and Mount Isa is expected to decline. Overall, overseas zinc concentrate production is projected to increase by about 100,000 mt in metal content YoY, with a significant slowdown in growth. Domestic zinc concentrates, however, tell a different story. As previously commissioned mines gradually release production and new mines come online, the next three years will be a period of production release for domestic zinc concentrates. China's zinc concentrate production is expected to grow by nearly 200,000 mt in metal content in 2026. Overall, global zinc concentrate production is forecast to increase by approximately 300,000 mt in metal content in 2026. From 2027 to 2030, global zinc concentrate supply growth will continue, but the pace is expected to gradually slow down.

Demand side: With domestic smelters continuing to ramp up and the recovery of domestic TCs, China's refined zinc production increased by over 600,000 mt YoY in 2025. However, as the benchmark hit a new low, overseas smelters saw a YoY decline in production due to raw material and profit constraints. Entering 2026, as new capacity at domestic smelters continues to ramp up, China's refined zinc production is expected to keep growing. With the benchmark's recovery, overseas smelter production is projected to see a slight rebound next year. Overall, global refined zinc production is forecast to increase by about 400,000 mt YoY in 2026.

From a supply-demand perspective, both supply and demand for global zinc concentrates are expected to increase in 2026, but demand growth is projected to be more significant, leading to a slightly tight global zinc concentrate market. Domestically, although Chinese zinc concentrate production is also rising, influenced by the recovery of overseas smelters, China's imports of zinc concentrates are unlikely to see significant growth next year. Considering that refined zinc growth is mainly driven by domestic production, the domestic zinc concentrate market is expected to be relatively tight in 2026. Regarding TCs, due to the expected tightness of domestic ore next year, the center for domestic and imported zinc concentrate TCs faces a risk of further decline, while the center for imported zinc concentrate TCs is also unlikely to see growth.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)