Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stabilize, Module Market Sentiment Slightly Weaker [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM December 15 News:

Silicon metal

price

in east China, oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt and #421 silicon at 9,500-9,800 yuan/mt last Friday. The most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,435 yuan/mt. Futures prices saw a slight upward correction last Friday but remained at relatively low levels, and silicon enterprises showed little enthusiasm for shipments and quoting.

Production

Operating rates at silicon enterprises were basically stable recently. The production schedule for silicon metal saw minor fluctuations with small increases and decreases over the past week, resulting in limited WoW change in total weekly supply. Some silicon enterprises in the north have upcoming maintenance plans, combined with the impact of air pollution in Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to changes in operating rates at northern silicon enterprises.

Inventory

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics on December 11, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 561,000 mt, an increase of 3,000 mt WoW. This included 136,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 5,000 mt WoW, and 425,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including portions not yet registered as warrants and spot inventory), down 2,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.6-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 51.99 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 49-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices remained temporarily stable over the weekend. The association's confirmation of the platform company's establishment provided some boost to market sentiment. The polysilicon meeting held over the weekend indicated some willingness among polysilicon plants to hold quotes firm, while downstream acceptance capacity was limited due to cost pressures. The market requires continued observation.

Production

Domestic production in December is expected to be 113,500 mt, with global polysilicon production around 120,000 mt. Currently, supply still appears slightly surplus compared to wafer demand.

Inventory

Polysilicon inventory has seen some increase recently. Current inventory remains extremely unevenly distributed among enterprises. With supply still expected to exceed demand going forward, there is potential for inventory buildup.

Module

Price

Module prices remained basically stable last week. For distributed projects, prices were basically stable, and market bidding sentiment decreased significantly. For centralized projects, tender projects began to decrease rapidly, and tender volumes also dropped noticeably. Module transaction conditions were poor, leading to a slight decrease in centralized project prices. However, the impending rise in costs is expected to increase pressure on module enterprises, limiting the extent of price concessions they can offer. Current quotes for high-efficiency distributed Topcon modules were 0.664 Yuan/W (183), 0.68 Yuan/W (210R), and 0.668 Yuan/W (210N), while quotes for high-efficiency centralized Topcon modules were 0.668 Yuan/W (182/183) and 0.688 Yuan/W (210N).

Production

In the second week of December, domestic demand weakened further, with some domestic enterprises having already halted production for holidays. module production in December is still expected to decline, with the estimated domestic production schedule falling below 36 GW.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, inventory levels began to rise last week. Although supply decreased, the faster decline in demand led to an increase in module inventory levels.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the domestic price for inner-layer sand is 55,000-60,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 15,000-20,000 yuan/mt. Domestic high-purity quartz sand remains stable, and recent negotiations for imported sand are still in a stalemate.

Production

Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises have implemented relatively significant production cuts, and supply pressure remains high.

Inventory

At year-end, crucible enterprises are making reasonable purchases based on wafer production schedules, leading to a slight increase in quartz sand inventory levels.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18-20 yuan/m², with the price declining.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 19-21 yuan/m², with the price declining.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is 11.5-12.5 yuan/m². Last week, domestic bidding sentiment was high, with both producer and processing enterprise selling prices falling. As module demand declines further, glass prices are expected to decrease again.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is 12.5-13.5 yuan/m², with transaction prices falling.

Production

Some planned new domestic capacity additions have been delayed, but previously added capacity has already begun to ramp up. Most glass enterprises plan to begin production cuts in December-January.

Inventory

Glass inventory levels continue to rise, with inventory days for leading glass enterprises exceeding one month. The industry average inventory days have increased to around 33 days.