China's 2025 Copper Concentrate Imports Show Significant Increase in Inland Mining [SMM Analysis]

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 2.526 million dmt of cu cons and its concentrates in November 2025, a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. From January to November, China's cumulative imports of copper ore and its concentrates reached 27.614 million dmt, an 8% increase year-on-year. SMM forecasts that China will import 2.6 million dmt of cu cons and its concentrates in December 2025, bringing the total annual imports to 30.26 million dmt, a year-on-year increase of 7.43%, with an expected increment of 2.094 million dmt.

From the perspective of imports by country from January to October this year, Mongolia, the Russian Federation, Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are the main contributors to the increase in imports. Decreases in imports primarily occurred in the United States, Kazakhstan, Serbia, and other countries.

Mongolia: Benefiting from the production growth of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine this year, SMM expects the country's copper output to increase by 53,000 cu in cons. As China's demand for copper concentrates rises, more copper concentrates from Mongolia are being transported by land to supply smelters in northwestern China. Mongolia's copper concentrate increment in 2025 is expected to reach 52,000 cu in cons.

Russia: Due to geopolitical and international political factors, China is the largest customer for electrolytic copper and copper concentrates from the Russian Federation. Russia's surplus copper concentrates are naturally exported more to China, supplying smelters in northern and northeastern China. The additional output from the Udokan copper mine in the Far East continues to be released, contributing to the incremental supply to China. The Russian Federation's copper concentrate production is expected to increase by 56,000 cu in cons in 2025.

Indonesia: According to SMM, Indonesia's copper concentrate production is expected to decrease by 442,000 cu in cons in 2025 due to a production accident at the Grasberg copper mine. Notably, despite the decline in copper concentrate production, China's imports of copper concentrates from Indonesia from January to October 2025 increased by 140,000 dmt year-on-year. SMM believes that due to the high gold content in Grasberg copper concentrates, Chinese smelters previously preferred copper concentrates with lower precious metal content when the market supply was ample, while copper concentrates rich in precious metals were mainly supplied to Japanese and Korean smelters. However, in the current environment of raw material shortages, smelters have fewer options, and traders with available supplies are including Grasberg concentrates in their delivery lists.

United States: Affected by the China-U.S. tariff war, China has imposed tariffs on copper concentrates originating from the United States, leading Chinese smelters to reduce their demand for such concentrates. This portion of supply is primarily redirected to countries like Japan and South Korea. The U.S. copper concentrate production is expected to increase by 54,000 cu in cons in 2025.

Kazakhstan: SMM expects Kazakhstan's copper concentrate production to increase by 32,000 cu in cons in 2025. However, China's imports of copper concentrates from Kazakhstan decreased by 150,000 dmt year-on-year this year. SMM attributes this to a safety incident at a copper mine owned by Kaz Minerals earlier this year, which created a supply gap for the Kazakhmys PLC smelter. As a result, Kaz Minerals' copper concentrates needed to prioritize supplying its affiliate, Kazakhmys PLC, leading to reduced imports of copper ores from Kazakhstan to China.