Weekly Review of the Lithium Carbonate Market: Lithium Carbonate Prices Fell First Then Rose, Moving Sideways [SMM Weekly Review]

Spot lithium carbonate prices showed a fluctuating trend of "falling first then rising" this week. The average SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate price rose from 92,750 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week (December 8) to 93,500 yuan/mt on Thursday (December 11), a cumulative increase of 750 yuan/mt. The average industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased from 90,350 yuan/mt to 91,000 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt. The most-traded futures contract moved sideways with an upward shift, rising from the range of 91,100-95,500 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 95,500-99,600 yuan/mt on Thursday, while the closing price climbed from 94,840 yuan/mt to 98,880 yuan/mt, as market sentiment drove the price center upward.

In terms of market transactions, downstream material plants generally adopted a cautious wait-and-see stance. Some enterprises engaged in buying the dip when prices fell early in the week. As futures prices rebounded and rose, actual market transactions turned sluggish, with downstream purchase willingness weakening and mostly limited to rigid demand.

Supply side, lithium chemical plants maintained steady production growth. With the gradual commissioning of some new production lines, domestic lithium carbonate production in December is expected to increase by about 3% MoM, indicating a steady release of supply. Demand side overall maintained strong resilience. NEV sales in December are expected to perform impressively; the ESS market continued to see robust supply and demand, with tight supply conditions persisting, providing underlying support for demand.

Looking ahead, battery cell and cathode material production schedules in December are expected to remain high but decline slightly MoM. Against the backdrop of steadily increasing supply and overall stable demand, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue destocking in December, but the destocking pace is likely to slow down compared to November.