[Nickel Midday Market Review] Nickel Prices Plunge Sharply on December 11, US Fed Announces Interest Rate Cut as Expected by 25 Basis Points

Published: Dec 11, 2025 11:39

Save

SMM Nickel December 11 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, meeting expectations. The Fed's dot plot projections indicate one 25-basis-point rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the Fed has been adjusting toward the neutral rate and is currently at the upper end of the neutral rate range, with no decision made yet on January matters.

(2) National Bureau of Statistics: November CPI rose 0.7% YoY, down 0.1% MoM; PPI fell 2.2% YoY, up 0.1% MoM.

Spot Market:

On December 11, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 116,100-121,600 yuan/mt, averaging 118,850 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted in the range of 5,000-5,200 yuan/mt, averaging 5,100 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel were quoted in the range of -100-400 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2601) opened lower in the night session and continued to decline, closing down 0.72%. Prices fell further in the morning session, settling at 116,920 yuan/mt by the close, down 0.7%.

Early this morning, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the macro impact was outweighed by nickel fundamentals, and nickel prices fell instead of rising. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price forecast to trade in the range of 114,000-118,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

16 mins ago

[SMM Stainless Steel Flash] EU Melt-and-Pour Rule Set to Reshape Stainless Steel Supply Chain Traceability

From October 1, 2026, EU importers must declare and substantiate where imported steel was originally melted and poured, typically through a mill test certificate containing the melt-and-pour country and heat number. The rules do not alter existing quota volumes or restrict market access from specific countries, and a one-year transition period allows alternative documentation where MTCs are unavailable. However, from October 2027, the Commission will incorporate collected melt-and-pour data into country-specific quota allocation decisions, with a further assessment by June 2028 on whether the melt-and-pour country should itself become a basis for quota access. The rules carry significant implications for Asia's stainless steel supply chains, where cross-border processing is widespread. Indonesia exported approximately 330,000 tonnes of stainless steel slabs to Italy in 2025, with EU-bound shipments already exceeding 123,000 tonnes this year; as slabs currently fall outside trade measure scope, the route of importing Indonesian semi-finished slabs for local processing may face greater scrutiny as melt-and-pour traceability deepens.

16 mins ago

16 hours ago

【SMM Nickel Flash】Indonesia Confirms Implementation Details of DHE SDA Relaxation

Indonesia has confirmed the implementation details of Article 18A of Government Regulation (PP) No. 21/2026, which took effect for export customs declarations (PPE) from September 1, 2026. The government identified 64 mining exporters, or around 12% of 537 exporters reviewed, as currently meeting the eligibility criteria. Eligible exporters must be incorporated as Indonesian PTs, operate in the mining sector, and have at least one shareholder from the designated countries, the US, China, Hong Kong, Australia or Canada, holding at least a 10% stake. The eligible list will be reviewed monthly. The government has also designated 15 foreign-exchange banks for the placement of DHE SDA under Article 18A, comprising five state-owned banks and 10 non-state-owned banks. This allows eligible exporters to place the required DHE SDA with designated non-state-owned banks, providing greater flexibility in managing export proceeds.

16 hours ago

17 hours ago

Data: SHFE, DCE market movement (Sep 03)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 03 Sep , 2026

17 hours ago