[SMM Analysis] Global Steel Market Weekly Review Issue 9

[SMM Analysis] Global Steel Market Weekly Review Issue 9

Last week, Chinese steel futures held up well, influenced by macro sentiment regulation, and steel export offers also strengthened. However, after the rise, most overseas customers had low acceptance, making it difficult to ship. This week, prices pulled back again. Current Chinese HRC export offers are $462-465/mt; billet export offers are $436-439/mt. With the overseas Christmas holiday approaching, market inquiries have noticeably weakened over the past two weeks, and overall transactions have also been lower than before. Based on SMM export order intake, the 21 exporters surveyed by SMM this cycle took approximately 415,000 mt in new export orders, down 20.05% WoW from the previous week's orders. The 31 exporters took approximately 645,200 mt in new export orders (new caliber), down 18.46% WoW from the previous week's orders.

Overseas markets, the Middle East market performed divergently this week. In the UAE market, due to the National Day holiday on December 1-2, most buyers had completed restocking by mid-November, so recent market transactions have been mediocre. In contrast, the Saudi market was relatively more active, especially driven by imported resources from China, with most steel prices, such as HRC and cold-rolled coil, rising, and transactions also saw a boost MoM.

Southeast Asian market: Affected by economic slowdown, reduced projects, and other factors, steel consumption in the region generally weakened. Against the backdrop of insufficient demand, suppliers from various countries engaged in fierce bidding to secure orders, particularly in the Vietnamese market, where HRC offers from China, Japan, and South Korea have fallen into a cycle of low-price competition. However, the Philippines, as the largest market in Southeast Asia, still maintained some trading activity.

Indian market: Indian rebar market saw some increases, mainly driven by December expectations rather than strong actual demand. After rising raw material costs and steel mills raising ex-factory prices, exporters' offers strengthened slightly. Turning to the sheets & plates market, contrary to rebar's performance, the local Indian HRC market remained in a depressed state of oversupply and weak demand, with end-users mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach for procurement, and export buyers also expecting further price reductions, leading to continued price weakness. Some market participants believe that prices have reached a bottom. However, due to the persistent accumulation of supply-demand imbalances, there is little sign of a stabilizing driving force. Therefore, it is expected that prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term.

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