Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Followed Finished Products Upward, Economic Advantage Narrowed [SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review]

This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China held steady at 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, while in Foshan, it rose slightly to 8,900-9,200 yuan/mt. Currently, the production cost of stainless steel calculated by raw material was approximately 12,706.58 yuan/mt for using entirely stainless steel scrap, and about 12,896.92 yuan/mt for using entirely high-grade NPI. This week, a steel mill in south China did not adjust its tax-included procurement price for 304 stainless steel scrap.

This week, driven by macro tailwinds, SS futures strengthened further, which led to a phased recovery in spot stainless steel finished product transactions and a rise in prices. High-grade NPI prices, already at low levels, saw a slowdown in their downward trend; high-carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable; and stainless steel scrap prices rose in sync with the stronger market at the start of the week. However, stainless steel mill production is expected to decline further in December, and the anticipated demand for stainless steel scrap is also projected to decrease. Although the stainless steel market recently recovered somewhat due to macro tailwinds, and stainless steel scrap prices experienced a slight increase, market sentiment remained cautious, with many participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and no significant strengthening was observed in stainless steel scrap transactions. Furthermore, although stainless steel scrap prices increased, high-grade NPI prices pulled back, further narrowing the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap. Currently, stainless steel scrap prices are at relatively low historical levels, posing resistance to further declines. Compared to high-grade NPI, stainless steel scrap still holds some economic advantage, albeit narrowed. However, with expected production cuts at stainless steel mills in December and after the macro tailwinds are fully priced in, the year-end off-season demand may again dominate the market. Amid the current tug-of-war between longs and shorts, prices are unlikely to see significant fluctuations, but downside risks remain.