SMM Review of Metal Production in November 2025 and Forecast for December

SMM's monthly metal production data is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals and help industry chain participants and investors gain a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

November 2025 Metal Production Review and Forecast for December

Copper Cathode

In November, SMM's China copper cathode production increased by 11,500 mt MoM, up 1.05% MoM and 9.75% YoY. The cumulative production from January to November increased by 1.2894 million mt YoY, up 11.76%.

November's production was slightly higher than expectations, as blister copper supply was relatively ample and the impact from maintenance at some smelters was lower than expected. The actual impact from maintenance in November was 42,200 mt, 5,800 mt lower than the expected 48,000 mt.

In November, the operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry was 82.29%, up 0.64 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate for large smelters was 84.06%, up 0.45 percentage points MoM; for medium-sized smelters, it was 81.75%, up 1.49 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters, it was 66.11%, down 0.44 percentage points MoM. The operating rate for smelters using copper concentrates was 86.2%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM; the operating rate for smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode was 63.3%, unchanged MoM.

Entering December, based on SMM's market communication, four smelters underwent maintenance, involving 750,000 mt of smelting capacity and 750,000 mt of refining capacity, with an expected maintenance impact of 5,000 mt. A smelter originally planned to cut production in November delayed maintenance again due to high sulphuric acid profits and export demand; the impact from this maintenance is expected to materialize in January.

SMM expects copper cathode production in December to increase by 65,700 mt MoM, up 5.96% MoM and 6.69% YoY. The cumulative production from January to December is expected to increase by 1.3627 million mt, with a cumulative increase of 11.30% YoY. In December, due to extended statistical cycles at some smelters and the full return of previous maintenance impacts, production surged again this month.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in November 2025 (30 days) increased by 1.47% YoY but decreased by 2.82% MoM. Starting in November, aluminum consumption gradually transitioned from the peak season to the off-season, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates and a reduction in the proportion of liquid aluminum. The industry's proportion of liquid aluminum dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 77.3% this month, a smaller decline than initially expected, primarily due to: 1) further capacity expansion at some processing plants near aluminum smelters, which increased the proportion of liquid aluminum; 2) in the second half of November, aluminum prices retreated from highs, while aluminum billet processing fees strengthened, leading to better production willingness among billet plants. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in November decreased by 13.4% YoY and fell by 0.78% MoM to around 828,000 mt.

Capacity Changes: As of the end of November, SMM statistics showed domestic existing aluminum capacity was approximately 46.12 million mt, while domestic operating aluminum capacity was around 44.225 million mt.

Production Forecast: Entering December 2025, operating aluminum capacity is expected to increase slightly MoM. Some new aluminum projects are expected to start pot commissioning from the end of 2025 to early 2026, and their commissioning progress requires attention. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, market feedback indicates marginal weakening in downstream demand, leading to stronger enterprise expectations for casting ingot. However, it is reported that in December, some scrap utilization enterprises, facing difficulties in procuring aluminum scrap or high procurement prices, chose to purchase more liquid aluminum, causing the liquid aluminum proportion to increase against the trend. Additionally, capacity commissioning and volume increase at individual processing plants near aluminum smelters are expected to raise the liquid aluminum proportion. Overall, the liquid aluminum proportion is forecast to decrease by 0.7 percentage points to 76.6%. Subsequent attention should be paid to the substitution of primary aluminum for aluminum scrap and changes in the operating rates of downstream processing plants.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in November 2025 (30 days) decreased by 4.44% MoM but increased by 1.36% YoY. As of the end of November, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was approximately 110.32 million mt, while the actual operating capacity decreased by 1.26% MoM, with an operating rate of 82.04%.

This month, alumina daily average production showed a slight decline but remained at a relatively high operating level, mainly due to phased production cuts and equipment adjustments at some enterprises in north China, while operations in south China were relatively stable, providing some support to overall production. Mid-month, some enterprises concentrated on production line maintenance work; at the same time, with the start of the heating season and the annual carbon emission verification entering a critical stage, environmental protection compliance pressure increased significantly, prompting some enterprises to implement production cuts to meet regulatory requirements. Additionally, some other enterprises were advancing production line upgrade projects, leading to a slight drop in production this month. Alumina production in south China was not significantly disrupted, with overall operations remaining stable. Entering late November, the unfavorable factors affecting production gradually subsided. As enterprise maintenance work was successively completed and production line upgrade projects were wrapped up, alumina enterprise capacity began to gradually recover, driving a slight rebound in production by month-end.

Next Month Forecast: The alumina market in December is expected to continue in an oversupply pattern. As the monthly average price continues to decline, some high-cost enterprises in Shanxi and Henan have fallen into losses, with operational pressures intensifying. Supply side, overseas alumina showed a net import trend in November, continuously impacting the domestic market, and import volume in December is expected to remain at last month's level, further suppressing the domestic alumina market. Against this backdrop, some enterprises may resort to voluntary production cuts or scheduled maintenance to cope with the pressure. Overall, industry operating capacity in December is projected to remain around 88.69 million mt.

Overseas Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, total overseas aluminum production in November 2025 increased by 2.1% YoY; the monthly average operating rate was 88.8%, down 0.3 percentage points MoM but up 0.5 percentage points YoY. By the end of November, cumulative production for 2025 had risen by 2.8% YoY. On October 21, Century Aluminum Company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Norðurál Grundartangi ehf, temporarily halted one of the two potlines at the Grundartangi aluminum smelter in Iceland due to an electrical equipment failure. The smelter's second potline was unaffected and continued operating at full capacity. This shutdown reduced the smelter's production by approximately two-thirds. No casualties occurred during the incident. On November 6, Century Aluminum Company stated at its Q3 earnings conference that the production line shutdown is expected to reduce Q4 shipments by 37,000 mt; the restart of the production line depends on the manufacturing, transportation, and installation speed of replacement power transformers, which is expected to take 11-12 months to complete. The first phase of the Indonesian aluminum project PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry, with a capacity of 500,000 mt, began pot startup at the end of November and is expected to reach full production of the first phase by October 2026. Looking ahead to December, the operating capacity of newly commissioned aluminum projects in Indonesia is expected to gradually ramp up, and daily average aluminum production is expected to increase. However, the newly commissioned projects are expected to increase existing aluminum capacity, diluting the global aluminum operating rate. The overseas aluminum operating rate in December is projected to be approximately 87.7%, down 1.1 percentage points MoM and down 0.7 percentage points YoY.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in November 2025 increased by 5.89% YoY; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises rose to 82.9%, up 0.8% MoM and up 1.2% YoY. By the end of November, cumulative production in 2025 had increased by 4.2% YoY. Overall alumina production remained stable during the month, with no news of production cuts or new capacity commissioning.

The monthly increase mainly came from Indonesia: the third phase (1 million mt/year) of PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (BAI), commissioned in June under Nanshan Holding, is steadily ramping up production and is expected to achieve full production by year-end, followed immediately by the commissioning plan for the fourth phase (1 million mt/year) in 2026. Meanwhile, public information during the month indicated that Inalum stated that the feasibility study for the second phase of its Mempawah alumina refinery (SGAR) in Mempawah, West Kalimantan Province, is about to be completed. The project is expected to commence construction in December 2025 and be commissioned by the end of 2028. Inalum's alumina production will increase from 1 million mt/year to 2 million mt/year, providing support for Indonesia's long-term supply.

In Australia, on November 18, Rio Tinto announced on its official website that it will cut the capacity of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Gladstone by 40% starting from October 2026. The main reason is that if the current operating capacity is maintained, the refinery's current tailings storage facility is expected to reach saturation by 2031. This production cut decision aims to provide the plant with sufficient time to achieve long-term operation by seeking technological breakthroughs. The current reduction decision can extend the alumina refinery's operation by four years to 2035. The company stated that although it has explored the option of building a second tailings facility for many years, the required investment is substantial and the current economic feasibility is insufficient, falling short of expectations. This move will reduce annual alumina production by approximately 1.2 million mt, but it will not affect customer demand or the group's other businesses. Bauxite mining and aluminum operations will continue to run at full capacity. According to SMM analysis, the production cut at this project is unlikely to reverse the oversupply situation in the overseas alumina market. As overseas alumina projects are gradually completed and put into operation in 2026, overseas alumina prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating downward trend.

Looking ahead to December, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 5.7% YoY, with the operating rate reaching 83%, up 0.15% MoM and 1.03% YoY.

Primary Lead

In November 2025, China's primary lead production saw a slight increase, up 0.49 percentage points MoM, but down 1.61 percentage points compared to the same period last year. From January to November 2025, cumulative primary lead production increased by 7.06 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that as maintenance ended at several primary lead smelters, November production increased as expected, including in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Hunan. However, during the same period, lead smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui entered maintenance, unexpected maintenance and production cuts occurred at lead smelters in Yunnan in mid-to-late November, and smelters in Hunan, Guangdong, and other regions experienced reductions due to insufficient raw material supply. Consequently, the final production increase fell short of expectations.

Entering December, maintenance at primary lead smelters increased compared to the previous month, primarily involving delivery brand enterprises, with reductions concentrated in Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Hunan. Meanwhile, smelters in Henan, Jiangxi, and other regions that underwent maintenance in November resumed production as planned, partially offsetting the decline in output. Overall, SMM expects primary lead production in December to decrease by 1 percentage point MoM. Additionally, it is noteworthy that lead concentrate TCs fell further in December, with import ore offers dropping as low as -$200/dmt. Meanwhile, the price trends of gold and silver were weaker than their strong performance in October, reducing smelters' value-added expectations for by-products from lead concentrates. Negotiations over lead concentrate TCs have reached a stalemate between mines and smelters. Going forward, there is a possibility that smelters may further cut production or fall short of growth expectations due to ore undersupply, potentially amplifying the decline in December output.

Secondary Lead

In November 2025, secondary lead production increased significantly, rising 7.78% MoM and 16.83% YoY; secondary refined lead output rose 8.5% MoM and 10.13% YoY.

Multiple secondary lead smelters in east China and north-west China officially resumed production in early November, while some smelters in central China and north China restarted in mid-November. In addition, smelters that resumed production in October operated stably in November, contributing significantly to the month's output. A large smelter in north China suspended operations for maintenance at the end of October due to equipment overhaul needs and did not produce in November; a major secondary lead smelter in east China halted production in late November due to the renewal of its hazardous waste operation license; individual smelters in central China cut production in early November as environmental protection-related controls affected raw material arrivals. Beyond these, some smelters in south-west China, south China, and east China reduced output due to weak lead prices.

Looking ahead to December, secondary lead production may decline. It is known that the renewal of the hazardous waste operation license for a large secondary lead smelter in east China will take two months; the plant's inability to produce in December is expected to lead to a MoM drop of over 5 kt in secondary lead output. Individual large secondary lead smelters in central China and south-west China may undergo equipment technological transformation or debugging, potentially resulting in a combined decline of 4 kt in secondary refined lead production. Apart from this, environmental protection-related controls imposed due to the impact of cold weather and northern heating on air quality have restricted production at secondary lead smelters. The retirement volume of waste lead-acid batteries, primarily used in e-bikes, has entered the off-season. The escalation of the supply-demand imbalance for raw materials, coupled with expectations of rising cost prices, may dampen the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters. Although smelters that resumed production in east China in November will normally ramp up production in December, bringing incremental output, it ultimately remains "a drop in the bucket." In summary, December's production is expected to decline by approximately 10kt MoM.

Refined Zinc

In November 2025, SMM China's refined zinc production decreased by over 20kt MoM, increased by approximately 16% YoY, and the cumulative production from January to November increased by 10% YoY, falling below expectations. Among these, domestic zinc alloy production in November decreased slightly by about 2kt MoM. Entering November, domestic smelter production declined more than expected. Beyond routine maintenance, the accelerated decline in TC for both domestic and imported ore, combined with increased inventory pressure on smelter raw materials against the backdrop of winter stockpiling, forced some smelters to compress production. Additionally, some secondary zinc plants proactively reduced or halted production due to losses caused by rising raw material prices and procurement difficulties. Simultaneously, power system maintenance also affected a certain amount of production. The reductions were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Yunnan, etc., while increments were primarily due to the resumption of routine maintenance and production increases in Gansu, Henan, Xinjiang, etc.

SMM expects China's refined zinc production in December 2025 to decrease by over 20kt MoM, increase by 10% YoY, and estimates cumulative production from January to December 2025 to increase by nearly 11% YoY. The decline in smelter production in December, besides routine maintenance and production cuts, is further amplified by the scarcity of raw materials, leading to an increase in enterprises proactively reducing production and controlling output. Major reductions are concentrated in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Yunnan, etc. Conversely, Gansu, Sichuan, Yunnan, etc., will contribute some increments due to the resumption of previous maintenance. Overall, production is expected to continue its downward trend.

Refined Tin

According to SMM data processed based on market communication, China's refined tin production in November 2025 decreased by 0.81% MoM compared to the previous month, while showing a slight decrease of 6.06% YoY. A detailed analysis by region is as follows:

According to General Administration of Customs data, China's import volume of tin concentrates in physical terms reached 11,632 mt in October 2025, increasing slightly MoM. Imports of tin concentrates from countries such as the DRC rebounded, with the overall volume meeting expectations, affected only by shipping and other transportation factors. Tin ore imports from Myanmar saw a slight decline in October, but with the approval of mining licenses, volumes are expected to increase by over 2,000 mt in November. Imports from other regions and countries remained at previous levels. Currently, pressure on the domestic smelting side persists: treatment charges (TCs) remain low. Raw material inventories at domestic smelters are generally below 30 days, making it difficult for smelters to raise their operating rates in the near term.

Jiangxi Region:

Breakdown in scrap supply chain: Recent sharp price increases attracted some scrap into the market, but with weak overall consumption towards year-end, scrap supply remained low, insufficient to support an increase in operating rates at secondary tin smelters in Jiangxi. This month, secondary tin smelters in Jiangxi largely maintained normal production.

Other Regions:

Some smelters temporarily halted production due to raw material supply issues, with no immediate plans to resume. This led to a slight decline in tin ingot production in November. Additionally, prolonged tightness of dual materials kept operating rates at most smelters consistently below 70% of planned capacity.

Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production in December is expected to rebound by 1.07% MoM. Driving factors: With holiday and maintenance impacts excluded in December, most smelters can maintain normal production.

Refined Nickel

In November 2025, SMM's refined nickel production decreased by 28% MoM and 16% YoY, with cumulative growth up 19% YoY. The average operating rate at domestic refined nickel enterprises fell to 44% in November. As nickel sulphate prices were significantly higher than refined nickel, and with high profitability from selling nickel sulphate amid a sharp drop in nickel prices, most companies chose to shift production to nickel sulphate, leading to a significant decline in refined nickel output in November. Price-wise, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in November was 119,608 yuan/mt, down 2,450 yuan/mt from the previous month. In the spot market, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,800 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt MoM. The premiums and discounts for major domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 500 yuan/mt, with significant fluctuations during the month, primarily due to production cuts of refined nickel by enterprises, leading to insufficient spot circulation volume. Demand side, spot trading activity for refined nickel increased noticeably in November, mainly because futures prices fell significantly, procurement costs were relatively low, and downstream enterprises' willingness to stockpile improved.

As nickel sulphate prices entered a downward trend toward year-end, the price spread between nickel sulphate and refined nickel is expected to narrow gradually in December. Refined nickel production in December is projected to increase by 6% MoM.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In November 2025, China's NPI production decreased by 7.34% MoM in physical terms and by 14.14% MoM in metal content. Both physical volume and metal content of NPI declined in November. November entered the traditional off-season, with weak end-use consumption and persistently low market confidence. Stainless steel finished product selling prices continued to fall, destocking remained challenging, NPI buying interest weakened, and prices dropped to a five-year low. Cost side, declining prices and firm production costs deepened losses for high-grade NPI smelters, leading to a reduction in domestic NPI production.

Looking ahead, December remains within the traditional off-season, and as year-end approaches, prices may hover around the yearly low. Procurement and sales demand across most upstream and downstream sectors are likely to weaken MoM. Approaching year-end, several stainless steel enterprises have production cut plans, demand continues to decrease, and under low price expectations, iron plants also have production reduction plans. SMM expects China's NPI production in December to decrease by 5.22% MoM in physical terms and by 9.93% MoM in metal content.

Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In November 2025, Indonesian NPI production decreased by 0.46% MoM in physical terms and by 0.24% MoM in metal content. Entering the traditional off-season in November, stainless steel demand decreased, prices gradually approached the cost line of Indonesian smelters, and high-grade NPI inventory in China remained high with weak downstream buying interest. Indonesian NPI production marginally declined in November, with both physical volume and metal content decreasing.

Looking ahead, stainless steel enterprises continued production cuts in December, while lower average prices are expected to further squeeze smelter margins. Amid the off-season atmosphere, some smelters have maintenance and production cut plans, while others are ramping up new lines. Overall, Indonesia's nickel pig iron (NPI) production in December is forecast to drop only slightly. SMM expects Indonesia's NPI physical output to dip 0.52% MoM in December, with metal content down 0.48% MoM.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM data, China's nickel sulphate output in November 2025 increased about 1.21% MoM, up about 19.09% YoY.

Demand side, after the September-October peak season downstream, raw material stocking demand pulled back in November, and nickel salt procurement volume declined. Supply side, some nickel salt producers resumed production this month, while the nickel futures market saw a significant drop. Due to nickel sulphate margins being higher than those for refined nickel, some enterprises cut refined nickel production and shifted to nickel sulphate, leading to increased nickel salt supply in the market. Looking ahead to December, downstream production schedules are expected to weaken further towards year-end, driving nickel salt demand down, and nickel sulphate supply is projected to decline accordingly.

SMM expects nickel sulphate output to decrease about 7.06% MoM in December, up about 19.67% YoY.

Manganese Sulphate

In November 2025, China's high-purity manganese sulphate output edged down MoM, mainly due to the fading peak season effect on demand and intensified cost-side pressures.

Cost side, pressures escalated further from October: the average price of 98% sulphuric acid in East China reached 967 yuan/mt, up over 28.7% within the month, driven by rising sulphur prices and plant maintenance. Additionally, environmental protection policies significantly increased manganese residue treatment costs, amplifying cost pass-through pressure. Supply side, enterprises mostly adopted a "cautious production control" strategy: while maintaining a "produce based on sales" model and keeping inventories low, faced with shrinking spot demand, operating rates at top-tier enterprises dropped back slightly from October, creating a situation of "costs supporting prices, output stabilizing prices."Demand side showed contraction characteristics: stockpiling demand that supported production growth in October and speculative demand driven by cobalt prices both weakened. The market mainly executed long-term contracts, and the industry focus shifted to signing 2026 long-term contracts. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, production experienced a slight MoM decline.

Looking ahead to December 2025, as the end-use market enters the off-season, stockpiling demand is expected to contract further. Combined with persistent cost pressures, high-purity manganese sulphate production is projected to decline slightly again.

Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD)

In November 2025, the EMD market officially entered the traditional off-season, with production showing a slight MoM decline. Affected by shrinking downstream demand and narrowing order scales, the industry's operating rate also decreased. The overall market exhibited characteristics of weak demand, lower operating rates, and reduced production. By product category, production of EMD for carbon-zinc and alkaline batteries declined more noticeably. After the September-October peak season ended in October, procurement by downstream battery cell enterprises returned to just-needed levels, and willingness for active stockpiling decreased, leading to corresponding adjustments in EMD production schedules. Production of EMD for lithium-manganese batteries remained stable at low levels, lacking support from demand-side increments, making a recovery in production difficult. On the other hand, raw material prices continued to fluctuate at highs. To control costs and avoid inventory buildup, production schedules were further tightened.

Looking ahead to December 2025, the EMD market is expected to remain in the traditional off-season. There are no significant positive stimuli in the end-use consumer market, and procurement demand from primary battery cell enterprises will likely maintain just-needed levels, making a significant recovery in order scales difficult. Substitution pressure from EMD for lithium-manganese batteries is expected to persist, with no anticipated improvement on the demand side. Approaching year-end, enterprises will focus on controlling inventory and ensuring cash flow, leading to more cautious production arrangements. Overall, EMD production is expected to continue its declining trend in December, with the market maintaining a weak balance.

Manganese(II,III) Oxide (Mn3O4)

In November 2025, domestic Mn3O4 production increased slightly MoM. The core drivers were increased downstream demand and the gradual release of new capacity.

Driven by the significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, market activity for LMO improved in November. Although it did not return to peak season levels, procurement volume increased MoM, directly boosting a slight rise in the production schedule of Mn3O4 enterprises. Furthermore, the battery-grade segment further benefited from incremental demand for ESS batteries and power batteries, and the LMFP market also maintained stable procurement scale, pushing the overall demand center upward. In contrast, the electronic-grade Mn3O4 market saw relatively sluggish transactions due to soft magnetic material demand being in the off-season, with the overall situation still characterized by oversupply. In H2, the industry experienced a small peak in capacity commissioning, as the expanded capacity of some enterprises was gradually released, also providing momentum for production growth. Although Mn3O4 production costs remained under pressure in November, enterprises mitigated raw material price fluctuation risks through long-term contract price locking. Combined with the price transmission space brought by demand recovery, this created a positive cycle between their firm price-holding mentality and production willingness, not significantly dampening production enthusiasm.

Looking ahead to December 2025, as end-use markets enter the year-end off-season, LMO procurement volume is expected to contract with the rebound in battery cell manufacturer inventory. Additionally, with the pace of new capacity release gradually stabilizing, the industry will return to a stage dominated by rigid demand. Mn3O4 production is expected to show a MoM pullback, with the decline likely controlled within 5%.

High-carbon ferrochrome

According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in November 2025 increased by 60,200 mt MoM from October, a rise of 7.32%, and was up 24.66% YoY. Currently, most ferrochrome producers focus on fulfilling long-term contract orders. Therefore, although retail prices for high-carbon ferrochrome saw a slight drop within the month, long-term contract prices remained at a relatively high level. The Tsingshan Group's November procurement tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome met expectations, holding flat at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), helping stabilize the ferrochrome market and stimulating active production among producers. Simultaneously, chrome ore prices continued their gradual decline, leading to a continuous decrease in ferrochrome smelting costs. Producer profit margins were significant, and the operating rate was maintained at a high level. Production increased across all regions to varying degrees, with the main increments coming from the northern Inner Mongolia region. On one hand, increments appeared as previous maintenance concluded and normal production resumed; on the other hand, some producers released new capacity and implemented production increases, leading to a 7.16% MoM increase in production compared to October. In southern regions such as Sichuan and Guangxi, aside from individual producers undergoing technological transformation and maintenance, most producers actively operated before the official arrival of the dry season, resulting in a slight rise in production. Furthermore, production cuts and shutdowns of overseas ferrochrome have had a noticeable impact on the continued growth of domestic ferrochrome production. China's imports of high-carbon ferrochrome fell significantly to 139,500 mt in October, down 37.67% MoM; cumulative imports for 2025 reached 2.1929 million mt, marking a 29% YoY decline. Under these circumstances, domestic ferrochrome producers ramped up production efforts, effectively filling the emerging supply gap.

Stainless Steel

According to SMM data, China's stainless steel production in November 2025 decreased by 1.79% MoM but increased by 3.56% YoY. By series, 200-series production fell by 5.94% MoM; 300-series production rose by 0.19% MoM; 400-series production decreased by 0.57% MoM.

In November, overall stainless steel production ceased its upward trend and pulled back. As the traditional consumption peak season of September-October ended and the year-end traditional consumption off-season began, end-use demand for stainless steel weakened significantly. Since the end of October, SS futures prices have continued to decline, and stainless steel spot prices have remained in the doldrums, further intensifying cautious wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Amid weak demand, order intake at stainless steel mills was not optimistic. Additionally, stainless steel prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, and steel mills continue to face inverted cost-price relationships, which somewhat dampened their production enthusiasm. However, social inventory of stainless steel remained largely stable during the month, and raw material prices gradually declined. Although production cut plans were announced by stainless steel mills, the actual implemented cuts fell short of expectations. Consequently, although stainless steel production declined, the decrease was not significant.

Looking ahead to December, stainless steel production is expected to see a further slight decline. With the year-end off-season, demand for stainless steel continues to weaken, and market sentiment remains pessimistic. Downstream purchases are primarily for rigid demand, leading to market transactions characterized by concentrated low-price deals followed by prolonged sluggishness. Stainless steel spot prices have fallen to relatively low levels, and steel mills continue to face losses, resulting in weak production willingness. By the end of November, news emerged that several stainless steel mills had cut production, with the affected steel grades expanding from the earlier 200-series stainless steel to the 400-series. Additionally, some stainless steel mills are expected to undergo maintenance shutdowns in December, leading to an anticipated overall pullback in stainless steel production. However, social inventory of stainless steel has not yet shown significant accumulation, and pressure on steel mills is not substantial. Moreover, recent declines in raw material prices such as high-grade NPI have created some cost flexibility for stainless steel. Although the tender price for ferrochrome by a major stainless steel mill in December fell MoM, it remained well above prior market expectations, indicating a strong willingness to ensure ferrochrome supply. Therefore, the actual production cuts may be less severe than market expectations.

Electrolytic Manganese (EMM)

In November 2025, domestic EMM production declined slightly MoM, primarily driven by weak demand following the end of the traditional peak consumption season, coupled with high prices dampening purchase willingness among downstream steel mills. Although the supply side maintained a tight balance supported by costs, the production pace adjusted in response to demand, showing an overall contraction trend.

In November, EMM enterprises still prioritized fulfilling long-term contracts, leading to continuously tightening available resources in the spot market, which supported prices within the high range of 14,000–14,100 yuan/mt. Some mainstream downstream steel mills reduced their EMM tender volumes MoM, showing low acceptance of high quotations. Traders followed producers in holding prices firm but avoided blind stockpiling, resulting in relatively sluggish market transactions. Downstream enterprises, facing cost pressure, considered raw material substitution options, and wait-and-see sentiment intensified, forming a negative feedback cycle of "high prices – weak purchasing – declining production." Additionally, after the traditional peak consumption season ended, core domestic downstream demand from sectors such as special steel and stainless steel cooled comprehensively, and overseas stockpiling demand also declined. Ultimately, this led to a slowdown in manganese plants' production schedules, with output contracting in line with demand.

Looking ahead to December 2025, as pre-holiday restocking demand is gradually released, downstream enterprises may initiate phased procurement, coupled with sustained cost support, EMM production is expected to rebound MoM, but the extent of the rebound will be constrained by the strength of the end-use demand recovery.

SiMn Alloy

In November 2025, China's total SiMn alloy production increased slightly MoM from October, with a significant increase YoY compared to October 2024.

The core driver for the increased SiMn production in November was capacity release in the main producing areas, particularly north China, which contributed the main increment due to significant cost advantages, showing a distinct divergence in operating trends between the northern and southern markets. Specifically: Core northern producing regions such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia maintained high overall operating rates in November, leveraging advantages in electricity costs. Data shows that overall plant operations in Inner Mongolia experienced relatively small fluctuations, with individual plants starting production on new capacity furnaces at month-end. Although some manufacturers in Ningxia scheduled maintenance, the overall increment in north China fully offset localized production cuts, forming stable supply support; In south China, affected by factors including higher electricity costs and some equipment maintenance, most maintained single-shift production patterns, with relatively low operating levels. Among these, Yunnan saw a significant rise in electricity prices due to the onset of the dry season, leading local enterprises to generally choose peak-avoidance production cuts to control costs; Enterprises in Guangxi and Guizhou mostly adopted single-shift peak-avoidance production strategies. While there were no large-scale concentrated production cuts, production loads remained relatively low. Notably, as the southern SiMn alloy market volume is relatively small, this pattern of "localized cuts and localized maintenance" did not exert substantial contraction pressure on national production. Combined with the incremental contribution from north China, this ultimately drove the national production to achieve MoM growth.

Looking ahead to December 2025, SiMn alloy production is highly likely to show a slight downward trend. On one hand, losses are further exacerbating capacity contraction. SiMn production in December shows an inverted pattern of "rising costs, falling prices," with losses occurring in northern producing areas and deeper losses in southern producing areas. Amid sustained losses, small and medium capacity enterprises first opted to halt furnaces for maintenance, while large enterprises also began to reduce operating rates to mitigate risks, driving down the overall industry capacity utilization rate. On the other hand, production cuts by steel mills during the off-season suppressed SiMn production. Steel mill production entered the traditional off-season in December, with production enthusiasm continuing to weaken, directly leading to a substantial contraction in the rigid demand for SiMn alloy. Additionally, steel mills exhibited a tendency to drive down prices, further dampening the production enthusiasm of SiMn enterprises. Furthermore, the inventory buildup trend formed in November continued into December, coupled with pessimistic market expectations regarding the future supply-demand pattern, creating a negative cycle of "inventory buildup-price cuts-production cuts," reinforcing expectations of reduced output.

Wafer

In November, wafer enterprises significantly cut production, with output down 10.4% MoM. This month, the average prices of all wafer sizes fell below cash cost, with the 210R size being the most severely affected, while the highest prices for the other two sizes still provided some support. Entering December, the extent of production cuts by wafer enterprises expanded, as companies largely completed their year-end quotas, and wafers shifted to a cost-based pricing logic. The overall market trend in December is expected to be more likely to fall than rise, with poor demand being the major obstacle to returning to profitability.

Polysilicon

Actual polysilicon production in November decreased significantly compared to October, down approximately 14.48% MoM. The main reasons for the November decline were the official arrival of the dry season and further industry self-regulation, leading to significant production drops in regions such as Yunnan and Sichuan. Simultaneously, the pace of production resumptions in the Baotou region fell short of expectations, resulting in actual November production being lower than previously anticipated. Polysilicon production in December may continue to decline slightly, primarily due to reductions from Inner Mongolia, while the Xinjiang region is expected to contribute some incremental output to offset the decline.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market communication, domestic silicon metal production in November 2025 decreased by 11.2% MoM and 0.7% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal production from January to November 2025 decreased by 15.2% YoY.

The MoM decrease in silicon metal production in November was around 50,000 mt, with the main production cut regions being Yunnan and Sichuan. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased by approximately 50% MoM compared to October. Changes in other regions were relatively limited. As operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan weakened, the share of silicon metal supply from northern production areas further increased, with Xinjiang accounting for 59% of supply in November, up 7 percentage points MoM. Combined supply from Yunnan and Sichuan accounted for 13%, down 10 percentage points MoM.

In December, operating rates diverged between north and south China, with production cuts in the south and minor production increases in the north. Rising electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan continued to push up production costs, leading some silicon enterprises in the region to cut or halt production by the end of November, while a few northern enterprises planned slight production increases, resulting in a modest rise in northern operating rates. Overall, total silicon metal production in December is expected to narrow significantly, with a decrease of 1.5%.

PV Module

In November, module production continued to decline across enterprises. Domestically, December installations fell short of expectations, leading to a slight decrease in trading volume. Meanwhile, recent module price increases sparked resistance to purchases among downstream enterprises, causing domestic module inventory levels to stop falling and begin rising. Overseas, as end-use demand entered the off-season and the impact of export tax rebates remained subdued, overseas demand declined sharply. Consequently, module enterprises began adjusting production schedules in line with demand, resulting in a 2.43% MoM decrease in overall production in November. Module production is expected to continue declining significantly in December, with end-use demand returning to a sluggish phase, projected to drop 14.77% MoM compared to October.

Solar Cell

In November, global solar cell production within SMM samples fell 6.1% MoM, while domestic production declined 6.2% MoM. Production schedules continued to decrease in November, mainly due to two factors: domestic module enterprises cutting production and reducing external purchases, leading to a noticeable contraction in domestic orders; and overseas demand weakening, with India's procurement preferences shifting due to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy policies and the approaching Christmas holiday, further tightening overseas demand from mid-November. Approaching mid-month, as end-use demand failed to gain significant momentum, cell demand continued to weaken, and inventory pressure kept rising, leading to a further expansion in the scope of production cuts by enterprises.

PV Film

In November, the total production schedule for the PV film industry increased by 12.5% MoM. Film manufacturers saw a rise in orders compared to the previous month. However, with module scheduled production declining in December, orders for downstream film enterprises decreased, and overall film production in December is expected to trend downward.

PV-Grade EVA

In November, PV-grade EVA production schedule fell by 28.35% MoM. The main reason was that most petrochemical plants underwent maintenance and switched to producing non-PV-grade materials, leading to a decline in PV-grade output. According to SMM, with new capacities gradually being released in December and expectations of scheduling PV-grade production, PV-grade output is expected to trend upward in December.

PV Glass

In November, domestic PV glass monthly production decreased more than expected, down 4.07% MoM from October. The number of production days in November was one day less than in October. Additionally, individual glass companies underwent cold repairs on furnaces again during the month. Although newly ignited furnaces from earlier periods contributed slightly to output, they are still in the capacity ramp-up phase and will require January-December to reach full production, resulting in an overall reduction in production. In terms of December supply, due to an increase in production days and output growth from previously ignited furnaces, glass supply is expected to begin increasing. However, with domestic demand continuing to decline, the risk of oversupply in glass is becoming more pronounced, and supply-side constraints are likely to emerge. Production in December is estimated to increase by 4.46% MoM compared to November.

DMC

In November, domestic silicone DMC production increased by 3.82% MoM from October but decreased by 1.33% YoY. Specifically, although some monomer plant facilities were still under maintenance and operating at reduced rates in early November, from mid-to-late November, previously idled facilities gradually resumed production. With no further reductions or maintenance plans at other monomer plants, overall supply increased slightly. Looking ahead, under the joint emission reduction plan agreed upon by monomer enterprises in November, the overall industry operating rate in December is expected to decline MoM. Therefore, domestic silicone DMC production in December is projected to decrease by approximately 3.08% MoM compared to November. However, it is still necessary to continuously monitor the potential impacts of factors such as the actual implementation of monomer plant operations and changes in downstream demand on related production.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM data, China's primary magnesium production in November 2025 increased by 7.74% MoM, and the operating rate rose to 75.89%.

Enterprise Operating Status: The sample for primary magnesium smelters this month totaled 60 enterprises, with two new sample enterprises added. The number of operating primary magnesium smelters in the statistics increased to 57 in November, and the operating rate of enterprises currently included in the statistics rose significantly to 75.89%.

Reasons for Production Growth: Primary magnesium production increased by 7.74% MoM in November, showing steady growth. First, the increase in the number of sample enterprises led to higher production data; both of these primary magnesium smelters resumed production in H2 this year, with one currently operating at 50% capacity and the other at full capacity, both producing normally according to plan. Second, primary magnesium smelters increased their operating rates, contributing to the production growth. Since October, smelters in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and other regions started production due to policy factors or internal company reasons. As adjustments were gradually completed, daily production at some enterprises increased slightly.

Primary magnesium production is expected to continue growing in December, with slight increases anticipated in Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other provinces. Full-year 2025 primary magnesium production is projected to exceed 1 million mt.

Magnesium Alloy

SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy production in November 2025 increased by 2.53% MoM, up 31.49% YoY, with cumulative growth up 11.89% YoY. The operating rate for magnesium alloy in October rose to 71.37%.

Magnesium alloy production grew rapidly in November, up 2.53% MoM. Although supply tightness in the magnesium alloy market eased compared to October, inventory generally remained inverted, with most manufacturers maintaining order-based production and spot supply remaining tight. The core reason for the production increase was the demand boost and the need to replenish magnesium ingot supply. Leading alloy producers operated at full capacity, while newly resumed producers in regions such as Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi maintained stable production at low operating rates, leading to a continued upward trend in magnesium alloy output. Meanwhile, driven by demand, orders for processing supplied materials in Guangdong rebounded, which boosted local recycled magnesium alloy production slightly and alleviated the tight supply in the magnesium alloy market to some extent.

Based on the current market situation, magnesium alloy output is expected to rise further. Most producers have already scheduled orders through early to mid-December, and the tight spot supply will continue to drive capacity release. Producers in major production areas such as Anhui and Shanxi will continue to operate at full capacity, while the capacity of newly resumed producers in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi is also expected to increase further, providing solid support for output growth.

Magnesium Powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in November 2025 increased by 13.45% MoM, and the operating rate rose to 49.88%.

Magnesium powder production edged up in November. The metallurgical sector remains the traditional major consumer of magnesium powder. Although procurement demand from domestic steel producers remained sluggish, demand from nodular cast iron and special steel production was stable, providing a relatively stable foundation for magnesium powder demand. In addition, due to year-end production plans and inventory cycles, raw material restocking was concentrated, and this rigid demand, combined with foreign trade orders, further amplified the scale of magnesium powder stockpiling for export in November, thereby boosting domestic magnesium powder production and operating rates significantly.

Titanium Dioxide

In November 2025, China's titanium dioxide production remained stable, with some enterprises operating at full capacity. Monthly output increased by 4.33% MoM, while producer inventory decreased by 1.69% MoM.

Supported by continued increases in sulphuric acid prices, titanium dioxide prices temporarily stopped falling and stabilized this month. Recently, the ex-factory price of sulphuric acid rose by as much as 1,000 yuan per mt, causing widespread losses among sulphuric acid method producers, who remained in a continued state of losses. Despite strong willingness among enterprises to hold prices firm, actual price adjustments face significant resistance.

From a supply and demand perspective, titanium dioxide capacity has expanded noticeably since production resumed in September, while downstream demand remains generally weak. Enterprises are currently mainly fulfilling previous orders, gradually digesting inventory, but new orders are limited, and market acceptance of high prices is low. On the foreign trade front, affected by anti-dumping policies, some export markets are blocked, and overseas quotations from enterprises are also at relatively low levels.

In the short term, if production remains stable, titanium dioxide inventory may accumulate again. Sulphuric acid method enterprises might choose production cuts or even shutdowns due to cost pressure, and market pessimism is relatively pronounced.

Sponge Titanium

In November 2025, China's sponge titanium production was approximately 24,000 mt, up 3.42% MoM, with overall production remaining stable.

The sponge titanium market maintained low-level operation this month. Although some enterprises issued price adjustment letters mid-month, the overall price held steady due to limited downstream response, showing a trend of stopping falling and stabilizing. In the domestic trade market, demand weakened after the September-October peak season, lacking market momentum, making it difficult to support price increases; the overseas market continued to be sluggish in H2, with order sizes shrinking, leading to an oversupply situation and significant inventory accumulation pressure. Production is expected to decrease somewhat in December.

Light Rare Earths

In November, Pr-Nd oxide production saw little change MoM. This was mainly because the operating rate of raw ore separation enterprises was relatively stable, and their production showed little fluctuation from the previous month; however, there were some minor changes in production from scrap recycling enterprises. Some scrap recycling enterprises resumed production after maintenance shutdowns ended, but some leading scrap recycling enterprises still had equipment maintenance in November, leading to a continued reduction in production, which is expected to gradually recover in December.

In November, Pr-Nd alloy production saw little change MoM. This was primarily because the operating rate of metal enterprises stabilized, and their production showed little fluctuation from the previous month; as the overall supply of oxides did not change significantly, market supply remained relatively tight, Pr-Nd alloy prices held up well overall, metal enterprises faced relatively small sales pressure, and production plans were not adjusted. Pr-Nd alloy production is expected to remain flat MoM in December.

Medium-heavy rare earth

In November, production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides declined further MoM, but the rate of decline slowed significantly. This was due to reduced operating rates at some ion-adsorption ore separation enterprises. According to feedback from some industry participants, due to significantly strengthened controls, some separation enterprises will halt production in December, which may lead to a continued MoM reduction in domestic rare earth oxide production in December. However, at the same time, the supply of rare earth ion-adsorption ore remains stable, with some miners reporting that the difficulty of selling ion-adsorption ore is expected to increase further. On the output from the recycling side, as downstream magnetic material enterprises continue to reduce the use of medium-heavy rare earths in production, the medium-heavy rare earth content in new scrap will also decrease, thus the proportion of medium-heavy rare earth oxide output from the recycling side may be affected.

NdFeB

In November 2025, China's NdFeB production showed growth, with a MoM increase of approximately 10%. This rebound in production was driven by multiple factors: on one hand, the positive news of the US-China agreement on rare earths at the end of October significantly boosted market confidence, overseas customer inquiries rebounded, driving up prices of raw materials such as Pr-Nd oxide, which in turn stimulated domestic motor enterprises to conduct defensive purchases due to concerns about future cost increases; on the other hand, although some orders were backlogged from October due to factors like the long holiday and concentrated in November for production, the introduction of new export control policies on November 8 further stimulated overseas customer stockpiling demand, while the domestic new energy vehicle industry also increased procurement efforts to meet annual targets, jointly supporting production growth. It is worth noting that the current production rebound is mainly driven by domestic defensive purchases, and the substantial recovery in the export market is expected to lag due to factors such as the Christmas holiday.

Molybdenum concentrate

According to SMM data, domestic molybdenum concentrate production in November 2025 decreased by 2.4% MoM, but increased by 11.7% YoY. Total molybdenum concentrate production from January to November 2025 increased by 4.5% YoY.

In November, most mainstream domestic molybdenum mines maintained stable production. In Shaanxi, the output of some molybdenum concentrate remained low due to the impact of prior technological transformation, and production was still in a ramp-up phase. In Luanchuan, Henan, some mines and beneficiation plants experienced production cuts or suspensions due to environmental protection issues and other reasons. Some enterprises reported that the environmental protection issues have not yet been resolved, and production cuts are expected to continue for some time. The operational status of mines in this region will continue to be monitored. Regarding industry shipments, domestic molybdenum concentrate prices were under pressure in November. Coupled with the impact of imported molybdenum raw materials from overseas, domestic molybdenum mines' willingness to sell decreased. However, production fluctuations were relatively small, leading to an inventory buildup in the industry as they await subsequent volume releases from mainstream mines.

Entering December, some mines in Luanchuan remain in a state of reduced production or suspension. Domestic molybdenum concentrate production is expected to maintain a slight decrease MoM. However, due to existing industry inventory and factors like imports of molybdenum raw materials from overseas, the circulation of molybdenum concentrate in December is not expected to face significant tightness.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM data, China's ferromolybdenum production in November 2025 increased by 0.99% MoM but decreased by 16.8% YoY. Total ferromolybdenum production from January to November 2025 increased by 3.9% YoY.

Domestic ferromolybdenum industry production saw a slight increase in November. The total domestic steel mill tender volume for ferromolybdenum in November exceeded 11,000 mt, showing improvement compared to the previous period. Additionally, as the molybdenum concentrate market operated under pressure during the month, some ferromolybdenum plants restocked at low prices and increased production. However, the tender price for ferromolybdenum from steel mills in November fell short of expectations, and market transaction prices dropped significantly. From the perspective of real-time costs, the profitability of the ferromolybdenum industry in November remained unfavorable. This was a major reason why many enterprises found it difficult to significantly increase operating rates. According to SMM data, the average monthly price for domestic 45% molybdenum concentrate in October was approximately 3,809 yuan/mtu, down 13% YoY. The average cost for 60% ferromolybdenum was about 246,000 yuan/mt, while the industry's average price for ferromolybdenum in October was approximately 245,700 yuan/mt. This resulted in an average industry loss of 700 yuan/mt for the month, narrowing by 4,400 yuan/mt MoM.

In December, domestic stainless steel and other molybdenum-containing steel demand entered the off-season, demand support for the ferromolybdenum industry declined, and coupled with poor industry profitability, the industry's operating rate is expected to remain low.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM data, China's ammonium paratungstate (APT) production in November 2025 increased by 1.5% MoM but decreased by approximately 6% YoY. The operating rate for the ammonium paratungstate industry in October was about 70.4%, up 0.3 percentage points MoM.

Domestic ammonium paratungstate market prices fluctuated at highs in November, and industry profitability improved somewhat. However, most mainstream producers primarily maintained shipments under long-term contracts, with limited spot order circulation in the market. During the month, tungsten concentrate quotas were issued in many regions across China, reducing the difficulty for APT plants to procure tungsten concentrate, leading to an increase in enterprise operating rates. However, in late November, tungsten concentrate prices rose rapidly, causing some ammonium paratungstate enterprises to re-enter a wait-and-see stance. Industry raw material inventories and finished product inventories were maintained at relatively low levels. Cost side, the average monthly price for 65% black tungsten concentrate in China during November was 321,300 yuan per metric ton unit, and the average cost for ammonium paratungstate during the month was approximately 465,000 yuan/mt. The industry turned from loss to profit, with an average monthly profit of about 8,560 yuan/mt in November, as profits shifted downstream along the industry chain to the smelting sector.

Entering December, mine production and shipments of tungsten concentrate are expected to remain tight due to factors such as limited available quotas and some mines having completed their annual targets for 2025. Downstream tungsten products like ammonium paratungstate still face expectations of difficulties in procuring raw materials. Additionally, as some enterprises have maintenance plans towards year-end, China's ammonium paratungstate production in December is expected to decrease MoM.

Silver

In November 2025, China's silver production decreased by approximately 3.63% compared to October. The reduction was mainly due to a one-month routine maintenance of the lead system at a smelter in Jiangxi starting in late November, which led to a decrease in silver production that month. Furthermore, copper smelters in Henan, Gansu, and Fujian provinces also experienced slight production declines due to reasons such as completion of annual production targets or sufficient raw material supply. A smelter in Yunnan also cut production due to routine maintenance but is expected to resume normal operations in December. In terms of production increase, lead and copper smelters in Inner Mongolia returned to normal production levels after completing autumn maintenance, contributing to a slight increase in silver ingot output in October.

Looking ahead to December, as some smelters in Yunnan and Gansu that previously underwent maintenance resume production, domestic silver supply is expected to rebound slightly. However, given that smelters in Jiangxi continue to implement their regular maintenance plans, this will impose some constraints on the overall growth of silver ingot supply. Overall, national 1# standard silver production in December is projected to increase by approximately 2.19% MoM.

Silver Nitrate

In November 2025, silver nitrate production increased by about 4.3% MoM. The impact of production halts or cuts due to the National Day holiday showed some recovery in November. During the month, silver prices continued to fluctuate at highs, and some silver powder and silver paste producers gradually accepted higher silver spot price premiums, providing relatively stable profit margins for silver nitrate manufacturers and thereby boosting their production enthusiasm. However, considering that the solar cell industry is gradually entering the off-season and overseas demand expectations for related products have declined, reduced production activity in silver paste may affect upstream silver nitrate output levels. Although the capacity utilization rate at many silver nitrate plants has currently fallen to 20%–30%, SMM expects overall silver nitrate production in December to remain flat with November, with limited growth potential.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM assessments, China's antimony ingot (including antimony ingot, crude antimony conversion, antimony cathode, etc.) production in November 2025 increased by approximately 13% MoM compared with the previous month, continuing an upward trend. Specifically, among the 33 surveyed enterprises assessed by SMM, the number of halted producers increased by 1 MoM; producers with reduced output decreased by 2 MoM; and producers with essentially normal output increased by 1 MoM. From the perspective of antimony ingot production, after falling below 4,000 mt in September, it rebounded to above 4,000 mt again in October and continued to increase in November. Many market participants consider this a normal phenomenon, as the current national production remains at a historically low level, and monthly output is still far below normal production levels. Currently, raw materials in the market are relatively tight and concentrated, with many producers still facing a shortage of feedstocks. Market participants expect that China's antimony ingot production in December 2025 may not change significantly compared to November, with a greater likelihood of maintaining stability.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing the assessed production of antimony ingots nationwide (including antimony ingots, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.). Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, the survey includes a total of 33 antimony ingot producers distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM assessments, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in November 2025 is expected to increase by approximately 6.3% MoM. After a significant rebound in September and a considerable decline in October, production rose noticeably again in November, leading many market participants to speculate whether the peak demand season is approaching as year-end nears. Some producers indicated that after the second half of November, antimony prices gradually stabilized and rebounded sharply. Amid market fluctuations, this has somewhat contributed to an increase in orders for sodium pyroantimonate, with end-users showing strong bullish sentiment, promoting restocking behavior. Detailed data shows that among the 13 surveyed enterprises by SMM in November, 3 were idled or under commissioning, 5 sodium pyroantimonate producers saw some growth in output, while 2 experienced a decline. Consequently, overall production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in China increased significantly in November. Market participants anticipate that national sodium pyroantimonate production in December is likely to continue rising compared to November. With the approach of year-end, if the market enters the peak season, it could lead to a substantial increase in production.

Note: Since July 2023, SMM has been publishing the national sodium pyroantimonate assessed production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the survey covers a total of 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across 6 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in November 2025 is expected to decrease by about 2.49% MoM compared to October, with a relatively small reduction. In recent months, bismuth production has basically maintained a stable but fluctuating trend. August saw the first rebound after a prolonged decrease, followed by another significant drop in September. Entering Q4, production rebounded again in October, only to experience a slight decrease once more in November. Market participants indicated that such repeated fluctuations and gradual stabilization in production reflect the current price trend of bismuth in the market, which is stabilizing after fluctuations, also indicating a stalemate in market fundamentals. They still noted that the overall supply of bismuth raw material remains tight in the market, and a bismuth concentrate miner in south China has already halted ore output for several consecutive months. Maintaining production at a low level may become the norm. Looking at detailed data, among the 24 surveyed enterprises in October, two saw a significant increase in production, while one suddenly halted production leading to a notable decrease; the production of the remaining enterprises experienced minor fluctuations, with little overall change. Many market participants expect that the tight supply of raw materials for national bismuth producers will remain difficult to alleviate in December, production is likely to continue to be restricted, and refined bismuth production is expected to remain stable, with the possibility of continuing to slowly decrease.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the national refined bismuth assessed production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the survey covers a total of 24 refined bismuth producers, distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as over 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In November 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued to climb, up 3% MoM and surging 49% YoY. Supported by robust NEV sales, strong seasonal performance in the passenger vehicle market, and thriving supply and demand in the ESS sector, lithium chemical plants maintained high production enthusiasm.

By raw material, all segments saw some increase.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November rose 1% MoM. Leading lithium chemical plants continued to operate at high utilization rates, while non-integrated enterprises also maintained high output levels amid a demand boost. Combined with incremental volumes from the smooth ramp-up of several new production lines, spodumene-derived lithium carbonate output remained high, currently accounting for a stable 60% of total production.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November increased 6% MoM, primarily benefiting from downstream demand boost and prices staying within a relatively ideal range. Toll processing orders saw a notable increase, driving overall production higher.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November grew 5% MoM, mainly contributed by the smooth ramp-up of new production lines. However, output at some enterprises pulled back to some extent due to seasonal temperature drops.

Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November surged 13% MoM, mainly because the lithium carbonate market maintained strong demand and rising prices, which enhanced production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises. Despite the rapid growth, the overall production scale of the scrap-derived segment remains limited.

The current production forecast for December is based on the most optimistic scenario involving the resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi. Its supporting lithium chemical plant requires a certain capacity ramp-up period, and is expected to contribute some incremental volume, albeit limited. Meanwhile, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the production boost from downstream demand, China's lithium carbonate output in December is still expected to maintain growth, with a projected MoM increase of approximately 3%.

Demand side, NEV sales in December are expected to drop back slightly from the previous month, while the ESS market continues to experience thriving supply and demand, with the supply-tight pattern persisting. Battery cell and cathode material production schedules are expected to remain at high levels in December, with a slight decline MoM. Overall, against the backdrop of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable demand, lithium carbonate is projected to continue destocking in December, but at a slower pace compared to November.

Lithium hydroxide

According to SMM statistics, China's lithium hydroxide production continued to show a slight increase in November, up 2% MoM.

From the smelting side, overall production increased by 2% MoM. Recent lithium hydroxide prices remained at relatively high levels, prompting some enterprises to enhance production willingness, with individual companies that had previously reduced or halted production resuming operations; coupled with the continued ramp-up of new production lines at leading lithium chemical plants, these factors jointly drove a slight increase in smelting-side production. On the causticisation side, most operating enterprises maintained their original production pace, with production slightly weakening MoM.

Looking ahead to December, production is expected to decrease by 3% MoM: on the smelting side, as downstream ternary cathode material demand is anticipated to weaken compared to November, some upstream enterprises that produce based on sales may correspondingly reduce output. Despite continued ramp-up of new production lines, overall smelting-side production is expected to show a relatively weak trend. On the causticisation side, individual operating enterprises are also affected by expectations of weaker downstream demand and the wide lithium carbonate-lithium hydroxide price spread, with production also trending downward MoM.

Cobalt sulphate

In November 2025, SMM China's cobalt sulphate production increased by 2.29% MoM and rose 16.4% YoY.

From the raw material structure perspective, influenced by tight supply of cobalt intermediate products and MHP raw materials, coupled with the relatively prominent economics of recycling processes, the proportion of recycled materials continued to increase. In November, the raw material proportions were: cobalt intermediate products accounted for about 55%, MHP about 18%, and the proportion of recycled materials further increased to 27%.

On the demand side, ternary cathode precursor production experienced a slight pullback this month, and as most ternary enterprises had completed centralized stockpiling for the 2025 fiscal year last month, their willingness to purchase cobalt sulphate externally weakened, somewhat dampening the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises.

Supply performance continued to diverge: some integrated enterprises, affected by production cuts in precursors, simultaneously reduced cobalt sulphate production; however, against the backdrop of high cobalt sulphate prices, recycling enterprises maintained good profit margins, boosting supply from recycling channels. Overall, total industry supply still achieved a slight increase.

Looking ahead to December, with further weakening demand for ternary cathodes downstream and tight supply of raw materials leading some intermediate product-to-cobalt sulphate enterprises to plan production cuts, SMM's cobalt sulphate production schedule is expected to drop about 7% MoM.

Co3O4

In November, domestic Co3O4 production showed steady growth, with monthly output up 9% MoM and surging 29% YoY, continuing to expand in scale. In terms of raw material composition, cobalt chloride was the primary raw material for Co3O4 production, accounting for 85%; cobalt sulphate accounted for 15%, maintaining a relatively stable raw material structure. The core driver of this slight production increase was robust demand from the downstream cathode material industry, directly boosting Co3O4 market demand. During November, Co3O4 market supply overall trended tighter, with low market liquidity, and the supply-demand pattern moved toward a tight balance. Looking ahead to December, downstream cathode material industry demand is expected to remain high, sustaining the release of rigid procurement demand for Co3O4. Supported by this, Co3O4 production is expected to remain at high levels, with anticipated monthly output down only 2% MoM, and industry sentiment is projected to continue improving.

Ternary cathode precursor

In November 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production pulled back, down 5.32% MoM and 10.2% YoY. The industry's average operating rate dropped back slightly to 46.31%. In terms of product structure, the 6-series precursor share remained high, accounting for 46.93%; shares of other series were correspondingly squeezed, with the 5-series, 8-series, and 9-series accounting for 13.04%, 27.38%, and 10.29%, respectively. Affected by the phase-out of NEV subsidies, ternary cathode material demand remained at a high level overall in Q4. After production surged in October, it pulled back MoM in November but still stayed relatively high for the full year, with some producers still in the inventory buildup phase. On the consumer market side, demand was solid early in the month, with active cargo pick-up by downstream buyers; in the latter half of the month, as raw material prices declined, the pace of shipments slowed down. Looking ahead to December, as the traditional peak season ends, market demand is expected to pull back further. Approaching year-end, some producers are actively controlling inventory levels, and coupled with expectations of further declines in raw material prices, producers generally show little willingness to increase stockpiling. Overall, the industry is expected to shift into a destocking phase in December, with production schedules projected to continue declining—currently forecast to drop 7.81% MoM and 4.55% YoY.

Ternary Cathode Material

In November 2025, domestic ternary cathode material production was basically flat, edging down 0.19% MoM and falling 7.29% YoY. The industry-wide operating rate remained stable at 54%. By material series, the share of 6-series materials rose significantly further to 48.67%, squeezing the shares of other series. Among them, 5-series materials accounted for 14.18%, with limited change against a backdrop of relatively stable raw material prices; the share of 8-series materials fell noticeably to 22.32%, mainly due to shrinking demand in the overseas ternary EV market; and 9-series materials held steady at 13.02%. On the demand side, driven by expectations of subsidy phase-outs next year, the EV market maintained relatively high demand levels in November. In the consumer market, downstream cargo pick-up was active early in the month, contributing to a slight increase in overall shipments. Overseas ternary market demand, however, saw a pullback. Looking ahead to December, as the traditional peak season concludes, EV market demand is expected to gradually decline. Nearing year-end, with some producers actively managing inventory levels and expectations of lower raw material prices, enterprises generally lack motivation to build inventory. The industry as a whole is projected to enter a destocking phase, and production schedules are being adjusted downward accordingly. Current forecasts indicate production in December will decrease 6.73% MoM and 3.49% YoY.

Iron Phosphate

In November, China's iron phosphate production increased by 5.14% MoM and 50% YoY. Iron phosphate supply continued the growth trend from the previous month, mainly driven by robust overall demand from downstream LFP enterprises. Leading LFP companies saw significant order growth, and some integrated players achieved full production of iron phosphate, collectively boosting demand for self-produced iron phosphate and keeping the externally purchased iron phosphate market active. Additionally, due to strong demand this month, some iron phosphate producers restarted idle production lines to meet order growth. Cost side, industrial-grade MAP and phosphoric acid prices rose due to sustained increases in raw material sulphur prices. Ferrous sulphate prices increased due to supply constraints and rising sulphur costs, putting significant cost pressure on iron phosphate producers and leading to notable price hikes in November. Iron phosphate prices are expected to continue a slow rise in December. Production side, iron phosphate output saw significant growth in November, up approximately 5.14% MoM, with further upside room expected in December, projected to increase about 4.13% MoM.

LFP

In November, China's LFP material production increased approximately 4.7% MoM and 44% YoY, with an industry operating rate around 73%. Supply side, capacity expansions at some LFP enterprises were gradually implemented, and new industry capacity continued to increase. Production side, LFP producers maintained high operating enthusiasm, supported by robust downstream demand with ample orders from both NEV and ESS sectors. Leading material plants operated at full or even over capacity. According to SMM statistics, about 20 LFP enterprises were at full production. Strong demand boosted orders and toll processing volumes for some smaller LFP players, creating a vibrant market. Product side, demand increased for high-compaction density LFP and high-quality LFP materials. Due to higher prices for high-compaction products, many capable material producers increased output of these items, though supply remained tight. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers showed robust overall demand this month, with top-tier enterprises particularly benefiting from increased demand driven by the expansion of battery swapping networks for commercial vehicles such as pure electric heavy trucks. ESS demand remained at a high level, and second and third-tier battery cell manufacturers also saw an increase in demand. Looking ahead to December, LFP production is expected to remain at a high level.

LCO

In November, the LCO market continued its steady growth trend, with production up 1% MoM and soaring 71% YoY. The sustained growth in LCO production during Q4 was mainly due to downstream enterprises' strategic stockpiling operations, based on expectations of tighter cobalt raw material supply and rising prices in 2026. Some orders were executed earlier, directly boosting LCO production. From a market fundamentals perspective, end-users have reached a consensus on the expectation of tight cobalt raw material supply, and stockpiling demand will continue to be released. LCO production in December is expected to fluctuate at highs, down only 1% MoM. Currently, downstream cell manufacturers have sufficient order reserves, and the industry's overall operating rate remains at a high level, providing solid support for LCO market demand.

LMO

In November 2025, domestic LMO production increased slightly, primarily driven by heightened market activity and resilient demand resulting from a significant rise in lithium carbonate prices.

From the raw material perspective, the increase in lithium carbonate prices in November was significantly higher than in mid-to-late October, coupled with high Mn3O4 prices supported by elevated EMM, leading to a further increase in LMO's comprehensive production costs compared to October. However, cost pressure was converted into the confidence to hold prices firm through price transmission, and although enterprises raised their quotes, it did not suppress production. On the supply side, the procurement pace of raw materials by enterprises was moderately adjusted according to the increase in orders, and the operating rate of top-tier enterprises rose slightly compared to October. From the demand side, the rise in lithium carbonate prices stimulated a "rush to buy amid continuous price rise" mentality among downstream battery cell manufacturers. Although there was no repeat of concentrated stockpiling, periodic procurement demand still existed, and the continued growth in the ternary and LCO markets further supported LMO demand, offsetting the potential impact of the end of the stockpiling cycle.

Looking ahead to December 2025, as end-users enter the off-season, battery cell manufacturers will shift to just-in-time procurement. With a rising wait-and-see sentiment, they will not blindly purchase at high prices, and the need for destocking before the holiday emerges. LMO production is expected to show a MoM decline in December.

*Survey Methodology

The SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts who track Chinese metal producers on a monthly basis through methods such as phone calls and field surveys, subsequently issuing China Metal Production Reports.

The survey ensures a fundamental coverage ratio of samples and continuously expands it. Meanwhile, it reasonably selects and distributes samples by considering details such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature, making each sub-item data representative.

The results are released monthly via SMM's official channels, including the official website (www.smm.cn), the WeChat subscription account, and the mobile site (m.smm.cn), at month-end.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.