Growing Scrap Supply and Softening Demand Push Blister Copper RCs Higher [SMM Analysis]

SMM December 2 News:

In November 2025, SMM's quoted blister copper RCs in south China stood at 1,100-1,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 1,250 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt MoM; quoted blister copper RCs in north China were 800-1,000 yuan/mt, averaging 900 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt MoM; import blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at $90-100/mt, averaging $95/mt, up $5/mt MoM.

Benefiting from the reversal of the supply-demand mismatch in the market after Q4, the blister copper RCs in China continued to rebound. Affected by rising copper prices, the price difference between primary metal and scrap remained high in November, leading to increased scrap-derived copper anode production. According to SMM data, the operating rate of scrap-derived anode plate enterprises has risen for five consecutive weeks, with more secondary copper flowing into the smelting sector, boosting China's supply. In addition, many China's smelters still carried out anode furnace maintenance in November, reducing demand for blister copper.

SMM's latest weekly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 1,200-1,400 yuan/mt, averaging 1,300 yuan/mt; weekly blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 800-1,000 yuan/mt, averaging 900 yuan/mt; weekly import blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at $90-100/mt, averaging $95/mt; anode plate processing fees in China were quoted at 700-800 yuan/mt, averaging 750 yuan/mt.

In December 2025, blister copper RCs in China are expected to remain at high levels for the year, with the overall market likely to show a relatively loose pattern. Supply side, copper prices surged again in December, widening the price difference between primary metal and scrap, while policy impacts have become relatively small. Considering overall enterprise profits, secondary copper continues to flow from processing to smelting, driving scrap-derived copper anode supply growth. Meanwhile, some ore-derived copper anode enterprises in north China have completed maintenance and resumed normal production. Demand side, previous supply increases have left domestic smelters with relatively high inventory, and some enterprises need to control raw material inventory levels by year-end, leading to subdued overall market demand for copper anode in December.

On imports, China's cumulative copper anode imports from January to October 2025 totaled 634,000 mt, down 15.01% YoY. Approaching the year-end long-term contract negotiation period, spot market activity is expected to be relatively sluggish. Moreover, as tight copper concentrate TCs make it hard to be optimistic about expectations, this may drag on 2026 import blister copper long-term contracts.