[Domestic Iron Ore Brief Review] Ore Prices in Shandong Mines and Beneficiation Plants May Remain Volatile

Türkiye's domestic and export offers rose synchronously this week. Domestic rebar prices closed the week at 615–620 USD/tonne EXW. By region, mainstream Marmara mills quoted 640–645 USD/tonne EXW (up 5–10 USD on the week), Izmir quoted 610 USD/tonne EXW (up 5 USD), and Iskenderun quoted 602 USD/tonne EXW. On the export front, mainstream mills' offers climbed consecutively to 600 USD/tonne FOB. Domestic HRC was offered at 595 USD/tonne EXW and export HRC at 595 USD/tonne FOB, marking weekly increases of 7.50 USD and 10 USD, respectively. Import CIF prices hovered around 550–555 USD/tonne CFR, though Chinese origins offered at 555 USD/tonne CFR met with low acceptance. Imported billet prices stood at approximately 515 USD/tonne CFR, while domestic billet prices reached 545–550 USD/tonne EXW (up 5–8 USD on the week), with Kardemir releasing an auction volume of about 150,000 tonnes at 525–530 USD/tonne EXW (excl. VAT). Customs data showed July scrap imports reached 1.65 million tonnes (up 13% year-on-year), bringing cumulative January–July imports to 11.3 million tonnes (up 4.6% year-on-year). Influxes of low-priced Russian DRI/HBI and pig iron resources partially offset upstream scrap cost pressures. Looking ahead to next week, the trajectory of export order intake and landed scrap prices will determine the sustainability of the upward trend. The market maintains a short-term strong posture, with close attention focused on whether order volumes from Egypt and the Gulf can materialize effectively.

There have been no price changes at all since last week: wire rod (495→505 USD/metric ton), slab (480→485 USD/metric ton), HRC (515→525 USD/metric ton), and billet (475→480 USD/metric ton). This is due to the “wait-and-see” situation that has persisted since last month. Additionally, information regarding external factors, such as products from China, is minimal or nonexistent, as Chinese suppliers are currently reluctant to lower their prices. Currently, there are reports that the Indonesian rupiah may strengthen, but its impact on prices is minimal. If these conditions persist, no price movements are expected, as it appears no party is willing to take the first step—unless a major event occurs, such as the Formosa incident, or a significant and sudden catalyst triggers a shift, in which case the market will react immediately.

[Indonesia] Currently, wire rod prices stand at 505 USD/metric ton FOB. Prices have shown no movement for a week due to the still-uncertain market situation, compounded by a complete lack of indications from external drivers (Chinese steel mill prices, coke prices, etc.). Buyers remain in a wait-and-see mode, while mills are also reluctant to lower prices as there are no compelling factors forcing them to do so. Even news of scheduled maintenance around late September has not prompted buyers to purchase the product, as the mills have stated that this should not hinder production. Prices will remain stable unless there are major driving factors or a significant situation arises that necessitates an urgent price decrease or increase.