China's copper cathode output in November rose by 11,500 mt, up 1.05% MoM and 9.75% YoY. The cumulative output from January to November increased by 1.2894 million mt, up 11.76% YoY.
November's output slightly exceeded expectations, as blister copper supply was relatively ample and the impact from maintenance at some smelters was lower than anticipated. The actual impact from maintenance in November was 42,200 mt, 5,800 mt lower than the expected 48,000 mt.
The operating rate for the copper cathode industry sample in November was 82.29%, up 0.64 percentage points MoM. Among them, the operating rate for large smelters was 84.06%, up 0.45 percentage points MoM; for medium-sized smelters, it was 81.75%, up 1.49 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters, it was 66.11%, down 0.44 percentage points MoM. The operating rate for smelters using copper concentrates was 86.2%, up 0.8 percentage points MoM, while the operating rate for smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode remained unchanged at 63.3% MoM. Entering December, based on SMM's market communication, four smelters underwent maintenance, involving 750,000 mt of primary smelting capacity and 750,000 mt of refining capacity, with an expected impact of 5,000 mt. A smelter originally scheduled to cut production in November delayed maintenance again due to high sulfuric acid profits and export demand, with the impact expected to materialize in January.
SMM expects China's copper cathode output in December to increase by 65,700 mt, up 5.96% MoM and 6.69% YoY. The cumulative output from January to December is projected to rise by 1.3627 million mt, up 11.30% YoY. December's output is expected to reach another high due to extended statistical cycles at some smelters and the full recovery of earlier maintenance impacts.
