SMM November 28 News:
Highlights: Global lithium sulfide production in November increased domestically but decreased overseas, showing a divergent pattern. Robust domestic capacity ramp-up and strong demand drove output to consecutive record highs, while overseas production contracted due to import reliance and the R&D phase. Domestic production is expected to continue growing rapidly in December, with prices maintaining a downward trend amid capacity expansion and cost-reduction demands.
According to an SMM survey on lithium sulfide production domestically and overseas, global lithium sulfide output exceeded 5 mt in November, characterized by robust demand and declining prices.
I. November Market Review: Domestic Capacity Continued to Break Through, Overseas Demand Adjusted Periodically
Global output growth slowed, showing divergence between domestic and overseas patterns
Global: Lithium sulfide production rose 14% YoY in November, with continued growth momentum but significant structural divergence.
Domestic: Output surged 18% MoM, with SMM monthly production exceeding 4 mt, hitting consecutive record highs, reflecting strong shipment momentum and capacity release.
Overseas: Output fell 19% MoM, mainly due to adjustments in production pace in traditional leading regions such as Japan and South Korea.
R&D-driven demand: As the year-end approaches, global solid-state battery enterprises are accelerating product validation tests to meet sulfide route R&D milestones, creating urgent demand for high-quality lithium sulfide.
Overseas output decline: On one hand, solid-state battery progress overseas is steady but not yet scaled, limiting real demand; on the other hand, their industry chain is increasingly procuring sulfide electrolyte products from China, indirectly reducing local demand for lithium sulfide raw material.
This month, lithium sulfide products domestically and overseas iterated rapidly, with significant improvements in batch stability, laying the foundation for future scaled application.
Price trend: Market prices remained stable with a slight decline, actively catering to the urgent need for cost reduction in downstream solid-state battery commercialization.
II. December Output Forecast: Domestic Capacity Ramp-up to Dominate Growth, Downward Price Pressure to Continue
Output forecast: Global output is expected to continue rising in December, but with mild growth. Domestic production is projected to increase 17.18% MoM, driven mainly by ongoing capacity ramp-up and robust demand from downstream solid-state electrolyte preparation.
Capacity layout outlook: Industry leaders such as Ganfeng, Guanghua, and multiple enterprises in the Sichuan region are intensively preparing for new production line launches, indicating that a large-scale capacity release of "several hundred mt" will be concentrated in 2026, profoundly changing the market supply landscape.
Price trend outlook: Based on continuous capacity expansion and strong downstream cost-reduction demands, lithium sulfide prices are expected to remain under downward pressure in December.
一、 11月市场回顾：国内产能持续突破，海外需求阶段性调整
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