China's Aluminum Wheel Exports: October Volume Up 2.59% Year-on-Year but Down 8.23% Month-on-Year With Main U.S. and Japanese Markets Under Pressure

The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China this week was 62.4%, down 0.1% WoW, showing a characteristic of "stabilization during the peak season with internal divergence." Specifically, the operating rate for primary aluminum alloy rose 0.6 percentage points to 59.0%, as enterprise production schedules became more aligned, supported by stable restocking from downstream, and is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The operating rate for aluminum plate/sheet and strip fell 1 percentage point to 67.0%, impacted by declining curtain wall panel orders and high aluminum prices suppressing purchases, with weakening demand expectations strengthening, and it is anticipated to gradually enter the off-season range. The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased 0.4% to 64.4%, supported by the high-voltage sector, but tight shipments and slow cargo pick-up by State Grid limited the rebound potential. The operating rate for aluminum extrusion edged up to 53.7%, with automotive extrusion showing relatively robust growth driven by the year-end push for targets, while construction extrusion remained sluggish and PV extrusion faced production cuts. The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, with export stockpiling for holidays in packaging foil providing a buffer, but orders for some categories have started to weaken. The operating rate for secondary aluminum producers remained at 58.6%, with order resilience still present, but tight raw material supply, profit pressure, and policy uncertainties continued to constrain production flexibility. Considering the performance on both supply and demand sides, SMM expects the operating rate for the downstream aluminum processing industry to continue its stable trend next week.

During 2022-2023, driven by positive expectations from the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan and extreme summer heatwaves, air conditioner manufacturing activity was brisk, with aluminum foil production reaching 1.04 million mt in 2023. Production continued to increase to 1.06 million mt in 2024, mainly benefiting from stockpiling production by air conditioner enterprises preparing for peak season demand. However, entering 2025, due to persistently high social inventory of end-use air conditioners, aluminum foil production is expected to pull back to 1.02 million mt, representing a reduction of approximately 40,000 mt compared to 2024, a decrease of 3.8%.

Customs data shows that China's aluminum wire and cable exports reached 23,000 mt in September 2025, up 3.1% MoM and 145% YoY. Cumulative exports for January-September totaled 198,000 mt, up 30.6% YoY from 151,600 mt in the same period of 2024. By product, exports of steel-core aluminum stranded wire reached 15,500 mt, up 4% MoM and 233% YoY, accounting for 67% of total exports; exports of aluminum stranded wire stood at 7,500 mt, up 2% MoM and 59% YoY, accounting for 33% of the total. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000)

The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China this week was 62.4%, down 0.1% WoW, showing a characteristic of "stabilization during the peak season with internal divergence." Specifically, the operating rate for primary aluminum alloy rose 0.6 percentage points to 59.0%, as enterprise production schedules became more aligned, supported by stable restocking from downstream, and is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The operating rate for aluminum plate/sheet and strip fell 1 percentage point to 67.0%, impacted by declining curtain wall panel orders and high aluminum prices suppressing purchases, with weakening demand expectations strengthening, and it is anticipated to gradually enter the off-season range. The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased 0.4% to 64.4%, supported by the high-voltage sector, but tight shipments and slow cargo pick-up by State Grid limited the rebound potential. The operating rate for aluminum extrusion edged up to 53.7%, with automotive extrusion showing relatively robust growth driven by the year-end push for targets, while construction extrusion remained sluggish and PV extrusion faced production cuts. The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, with export stockpiling for holidays in packaging foil providing a buffer, but orders for some categories have started to weaken. The operating rate for secondary aluminum producers remained at 58.6%, with order resilience still present, but tight raw material supply, profit pressure, and policy uncertainties continued to constrain production flexibility. Considering the performance on both supply and demand sides, SMM expects the operating rate for the downstream aluminum processing industry to continue its stable trend next week.

Customs data showed that China's aluminum wire and cable exports reached 22,300 mt in August 2025, up 26.35% MoM and 69% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to August totaled 175,100 mt, up 36.85% from 135,000 mt in the same period of 2024. By product structure, steel-core aluminum stranded wire exports were 15,000 mt, up 41% MoM and 80% YoY, accounting for 67% of total exports; aluminum stranded wire exports were 7,300 mt, up 5% MoM and 50% YoY, accounting for 33% of total exports. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000)

This week, the overall operating rate of leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises in China rose 0.4 percentage points WoW to 62.1%, with the "September peak season" effect continuing to strengthen and various sectors showing a stepwise recovery pattern. The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy sector increased significantly by 1 percentage point to 57.6%, driven by strong capacity release from top-tier enterprises, though small and medium-sized enterprises still faced order gaps. The aluminum wire and cable industry's operating rate edged up 0.4% to 65.2%, as regional environmental protection inspections were lifted, but capacity recovery in Hebei lagged behind expectations, while power grid orders supported higher operating rates at leading firms. The aluminum extrusion operating rate rebounded 1 percentage point to 54%, with accelerated transition from architectural to industrial profiles, processing fees for PV frames hitting bottom and stabilizing, and new orders for automotive extrusion becoming a highlight. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate/sheet and strip enterprises held steady at a high of 68.6%, as the can stock stockpiling cycle neared its end, and demand resilience in automotive/3C sectors stood out. The aluminum foil industry's operating rate remained at a peak level of 71.9%, though peak season order growth fell short of expectations, with stable demand for packaging foil and battery foil. The operating rate of secondary aluminum producers rose slightly by 0.5% to 53.5%, as consumption-side improvements drove the rebound, but raw material shortages and policy factors continued to constrain capacity recovery. SMM believes that, driven by consumption recovery in terminal sectors such as 3C, automotive, and PV, the aluminum processing industry has re-entered its peak season rhythm. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, ongoing order releases in the new energy sector have effectively offset this, and downstream aluminum consumption is still expected to increase. SMM expects the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry to continue rising in mid-September, but cautions about the impact of high aluminum prices on downstream stocking willingness.

[SMM Aluminum Downstream Analysis: August Aluminum Processing Industry PMI Reached 53.3% – Structural Recovery Under September-October Peak Season Expectations, Full Recovery of Aluminum Processing Still Requires Observation] The comprehensive PMI of the aluminum processing industry in August recorded 53.3%, up 9.2 percentage points MoM and 9.7 percentage points YoY.