Manual Processing Profit Narrowed in October, Short-Term Primary Aluminum Imports Expected to Decrease

SMM November 24 News:

Primary aluminum imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in October 2025 were approximately 248,400 mt, up 0.6% MoM and up 42.1% YoY. The cumulative total primary aluminum imports from January to October reached about 2.2108 million mt, up 21.2% YoY.

Primary aluminum exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum exports in October 2025 were approximately 24,600 mt, down 15.2% MoM but up 54.2% YoY. Cumulative primary aluminum exports from January to October totaled about 206,900 mt, up roughly 131.1% YoY.

Primary aluminum net imports: China's net imports of primary aluminum in October 2025 were 223,800 mt, up 2.7% MoM and up 40.9% YoY. Cumulative net imports of primary aluminum from January to October amounted to approximately 2.0039 million mt, up 15.5% YoY.

(The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.)

From the perspective of import source countries, the main sources of China's primary aluminum imports in October 2025 were the Russian Federation, Indonesia, India, Australia, and other countries and regions. Among them, imports from Russia were about 157,700 mt, down 10.4% MoM, accounting for 63.5% of October imports. Imports from Indonesia were approximately 36,400 mt, representing a 14.7% share.

From the perspective of import trade modes, as primary aluminum imports are currently in a loss-making state, the proportion imported under the Ordinary Trade mode is relatively small, at only 5.7%. The combined share of imports under the Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area and Entry and Exit Goods in Bonded Control Areas modes reached 43.4%. The proportion imported under the processing with supplied materials mode was 33.2%. The combined share of imports under the processing with imported materials and processing with supplied materials trade modes was 16.3%, with a total import volume of approximately 40,400 mt, up 0.3% MoM and up 1637.8% YoY.

Looking ahead, as news of production cuts at an Icelandic smelter emerged overseas in October, expectations of overseas supply tightening drove LME aluminum prices higher. SHFE aluminum prices failed to keep pace with the gains, leading to an expansion in losses for aluminum imports, with the maximum loss reaching nearly 3,000 yuan/mt. Profit margins for handbook processing narrowed, and subsequent imports under handbook processing methods are expected to decrease. Additionally, influenced by high aluminum premiums in Europe and the US, some material is expected to be diverted to those regions, slightly affecting the supply of imported aluminum in China.