October Refined Copper Import Decline Materialized, Export Window Reopens Counter-Cyclically

According to Chinese custom, in October 2025, China’s refined copper imports totaled 282,100 tons, down 15.61% month-on-month and 21.50% year-on-year. Exports reached 65,900 tons, marking a sharp increase of 149.47% MoM and a surge of 541.88% YoY.

Imports: African Supply Disruptions Emerge, Import Diversity Declines
Copper cathode imports from Africa saw a significant decline this month. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remained China’s largest supplier with 102,600 tons, accounting for 36.36% of total imports. However, this volume fell by 15.36% MoM and a steep 29.33% YoY. The decline was mainly due to persistent issues in the region, including unstable power supply, sulfuric acid shortages, and port congestion, all of which disrupted smelter shipments. Overall, the diversity of China’s copper import sources continued to narrow, with over 60% of total imports in October coming from just the top three countries—most of which are unregistered brands.

Exports: Export Window Reopened Counter-Cyclically
On the export side, China shipped 65,900 tons of refined copper in October, representing a 149.47% MoM increase and a 541.88% YoY surge. This sharp rise was mainly driven by the reopening of the export arbitrage window in a counter-cyclical manner. Domestically, the rapid rise in copper prices suppressed downstream consumption, prompting smelters to offload inventory overseas. Externally, spot demand for copper remained robust—especially in Taiwan and Southeast Asia, where seasonal maintenance caused tight supply and supported premiums. Together, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia accounted for over 65% of total exports. Additionally, the COMEX-LME arbitrage window reopened temporarily in mid-to-late October, leading some traders to ship copper to the U.S. for arbitrage opportunities.

Outlook:
Looking ahead, both domestic and overseas copper demand is expected to remain subdued through the end of 2025. Large-scale exports by Chinese smelters are unlikely to significantly narrow the import-export price gap. At the same time, logistical disruptions are intensifying, making it difficult for the import window to remain widely open. As a result, China’s net imports of copper are likely to stay low on a YoY basis.