[SMM Sheets & Plates Daily Review] Futures and Spot Prices Fluctuate Rangebound, Merchants Show Strong Willingness to Hold Goods

Published: Nov 21, 2025 17:50

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This week, hot-rolled coil prices moved downwards after a higher opening, with the price center rising slightly. Overall trading conditions improved. Supply side, steel mill profits continued to decline this week, but maintenance ended at some mills' hot-rolling production lines, leading to an increase in hot-rolled coil production. Demand side, market demand showed some improvement this week, with weekly apparent consumption of hot-rolled coil continuing to increase. Inventory side, SMM statistics showed national hot-rolled coil social inventory across 86 warehouses (large sample) at 4.235 million mt, down 99,100 mt WoW, a decrease of 2.29% WoW. National social inventory continued to decline this week, with the rate of decrease expanding. Cost side, the fourth round of coke price increases was implemented last Saturday, and iron ore prices rose slightly, strengthening cost support for hot-rolled coil. Looking ahead, coke prices are expected to stabilize temporarily next week, making a direct decline difficult. Iron ore prices are expected to fall, potentially leading to a slight decrease in hot-rolled coil costs. However, demand resilience for hot-rolled coil remains, providing support to prices. Downside room for hot-rolled coil prices is limited. The most-traded hot-rolled coil futures contract is expected to trade in the range of 3,220-3,300 next week.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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