"Silicone + Capital" Disturbances Cause Significant Price Fluctuations During the Week, Silicon Metal Center Rises WoW [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

SMM Nov. 20: Silicon Metal: Silicon metal prices fluctuated rapidly with significant volatility this week, starting weak at the beginning of the week, then experiencing a strong rally mid-week followed by a pullback. As of Nov. 20, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon was at 9,700-9,800 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon (used in silicone) was at 9,800-10,200 yuan/mt, flat WoW; #3303 silicon was at 10,400-10,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded silicon metal contract surged over 4% on Wednesday, hitting a peak above 9,500 yuan/mt. The primary reason was that following a joint meeting by monomer enterprises to hold prices firm on Tuesday, offers for various silicone products—a downstream sector of silicon metal—were increased again. The planned production cuts in the silicone sector fell short of expectations, having a limited impact on silicon metal consumption in the short term. Coupled with coordinated fund activity boosting the market, futures prices rose rapidly on Wednesday afternoon. After the futures rally, several silicon enterprises in northern China actively sold to spot-futures arbitragers, causing prices to pull back to 9,390 yuan/mt by the close. On Thursday, market sentiment cooled amid reduced fund activity, and October export data showed a significant MoM decline. According to customs data, silicon metal exports in Oct. 2025 were 45,100 mt, down sharply by 36% MoM and 31% YoY. On Nov. 20, the most-traded SI2601 silicon metal futures contract continued weak, closing at 9,075 yuan/mt, down 315 yuan/mt from the previous day but up 55 yuan/mt from last Friday.

On the demand side, the weekly operating rate for polysilicon was basically stable, with recent demand for silicon metal remaining steady. The operating rate for the silicone sector was largely maintained this week, with a small amount of additional monomer capacity recently brought online, and a slight increase in the operating rate is expected next week. The operating rate for aluminum alloy enterprises increased slightly, mainly supported by moderate performance in downstream order demand, which bolstered a gradual rise in the operating rate for alloy enterprises. Overall, demand performance this year has been better than the same period last year.

The "anti-involution" sentiment in the silicone sector has been largely digested by the market, with no other significant new changes in the fundamentals of the silicon metal market. On the supply side, there were sporadic production increases or cuts in different regions, but the overall operating rate remained relatively stable. From the perspective of downstream demand and the selling sentiment of silicon enterprises, the current futures face downward pressure near 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, with demand support around 8,900-9,000 yuan/mt. Market participants will monitor changes in the operating rates of silicon demand sectors in December.

Polysilicon: This week's polysilicon price index was 51.9 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon offers at 49.7-55 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon offers at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were largely stable with minor fluctuations this week, while market sentiment turned somewhat pessimistic, primarily due to delays in platform implementation and frequent price reductions across multiple downstream segments. Supported by top-tier enterprises holding quotes firm and the current "special" inventory structure, prices have temporarily stabilized, yet market transactions remain limited. Whether prices can hold steady going forward will largely depend on the determination of top-tier enterprises to maintain firm quotes.

Wafer:Overall wafer prices declined this week, with N-type 183 wafers priced at 1.23-1.28 yuan/piece, 210R wafers quoted at 1.25-1.28 yuan/piece, and 210mm wafers quoted at 1.65 yuan/piece. The price drop was mainly driven by weak order demand. Following the receding overseas demand, battery prices also fell, narrowing profit margins and prompting battery plants to exert pressure on the cost side, intensifying negotiations. By size, 210N prices showed relatively stronger support. Looking ahead, wafers are shifting toward a cost-based pricing logic, and the room for further declines is expected to be relatively small.

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