Zinc Concentrate Imports Fell More Than Expected in October; What to Expect for November? [SMM Analysis]

SMM November 20 News:

According to the latest customs data, China imported 340,900 mt in physical content of zinc concentrates in October 2025, down 32.56% MoM (a decrease of 164,500 mt in physical content) from September but up 2.97% YoY. Cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to October totaled 4.3489 million mt in physical content, up 36.59% YoY.

By country, the top three sources of imports in October 2025 were Peru (95,700 mt in physical content, 28.1%), Australia (49,800 mt in physical content, 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 mt in physical content, 9.5%). MoM, countries such as Australia, Eritrea, and Bolivia saw significant declines, while inflows from Peru, Chile, and Kazakhstan increased to varying degrees.

SMM believes that zinc concentrate imports in October fell more than expected compared to September for the following reasons:

1. Affected by cyclical arrivals, zinc concentrate shipments from Australia decreased significantly in October, contributing the majority of the decline.

2. The SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate. In September, losses on imported zinc concentrates widened to over 2,000 yuan per mt in metal content, making domestic zinc concentrates more price-competitive. Smelters actively purchased domestic zinc concentrates and showed low purchase willingness for imported material.

Entering November, on one hand, some zinc concentrates previously affected by cyclical shipping delays are expected to see concentrated arrivals in November, leading to a recovery in import volumes. On the other hand, although the price ratio remains unfavorable since October, robust winter stockpiling demand from smelters has led to a rapid decline in domestic zinc concentrate TCs. To secure raw materials, some smelters have started to purchase imported zinc concentrates, and imports are expected to recover MoM in November.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.)