SHFE Lead Rose First Then Fell During the Day, with a Minor Rebound at the Close [Lead Futures Brief Review]

SMM November 20:

The most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 17,245 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to 17,275 yuan/mt in early trading, then resumed its decline due to long position liquidation, falling to 17,195 yuan/mt before a slight rebound, and finally closed at 17,220 yuan/mt, down 30 yuan/mt, or 0.17%. A small bearish candlestick was recorded.

Recently, domestic primary lead and secondary lead enterprises have seen simultaneous production resumptions and cuts, particularly in secondary lead, where price declines have squeezed margins, significantly dampening production enthusiasm. A smelter in east China is expected to halt production due to the expiration of its hazardous waste permit. Overall, regional supply is tightening. Notably, the price spread between primary lead and secondary lead has narrowed to low levels, with secondary lead prices in some regions even on par with primary lead, shifting downstream procurement demand toward primary lead. This structural shift has effectively driven the drawdown of social inventory of lead ingots, and with current social inventory remaining low overall, lead prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations in the short term.

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