Tin Market Opened Slightly Higher in Night Session Then Fluctuated Downward; Spot Market Trading Remained Sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 20, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher in the night session, then fluctuated downward, closing at 292,020 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) On November 19 local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it had authorized exports of advanced US semiconductors to two artificial intelligence companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Both companies have been approved to purchase 35,000 Nvidia Blackwell (GB300s) chips. The two companies are G42, a state-owned AI company based in Abu Dhabi, and Humain, a Saudi government-backed AI enterprise. The Commerce Department stated that the approvals come with strict security and reporting requirements. (2) Nvidia (NVDA.O) just reported its Q3 fiscal quarter results, with sales growth of its AI boom-core chips exceeding Wall Street expectations, while the company provided a strong revenue forecast for the current quarter, reassuring investors that the AI investment frenzy will continue. Its Q3 financial report showed Q3 revenue of $57 billion, up 62% YoY, with data center revenue at $51.2 billion, above expectations of $49 billion. Additionally, its Q4 revenue outlook is approximately $65 billion, significantly higher than the average analyst estimate of $61.6 billion. After the earnings release, Nvidia's (NVDA.O) after-hours stock price rose over 4%. Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang stated, "Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are completely sold out." Previously, Huang had downplayed concerns about an AI bubble. (3) According to Reuters, the CEOs of AMD (AMD.O), Cisco (CSCO.O), and Saudi Arabian AI startup Humain said the three companies are forming a joint venture to build data centers in the Middle East and have already secured their first customer. According to Humain CEO Tareq Amin, the unnamed joint venture will start with a 100-megawatt (MW) data center project in Saudi Arabia, for which Humain has signed to provide computing power to generative video startup Luma AI. The project's scale and the first customer had not been previously reported. Amin said, "They will be the first customer of this cluster," adding that Luma has signed to purchase the entire 100 MW capacity. Amin stated that the joint venture aims to serve a market including Asia, Europe, India, the Middle East, and Africa, with a total market size of approximately 4.5 billion people. Plans include building up to 1 gigawatt (GW) of new data centers by 2030 to support the joint venture. For the initial 100 MW construction project, Cisco will provide networking equipment and other infrastructure, while AMD will supply its MI 450 AI chips.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening overall in major producing regions like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remains cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains too small to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Overall spot transactions have cooled. As SHFE tin prices climbed yesterday, downstream and end-user enterprises further suppressed already weak purchasing sentiment, with most companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the current high price levels. Although prices at the night session dropped back slightly, the overall price remained high at 292,000 yuan/mt. Most traders reported dismal transactions yesterday, with few inquiries from customers.

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