According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 62.37% in October, down 5.31 percentage points MoM and down 10.14 percentage points YoY. The October operating rate for copper pipe & tube was the lowest in nearly five years and showed the largest YoY decline. Based on communication with enterprises, SMM learned that due to weak air-conditioner production and sales in Q4, copper pipe & tube orders declined significantly. Coupled with copper prices hitting a record high in October, enterprises' willingness to place orders decreased again, leading to a dismal operating rate in the copper pipe & tube industry for the month.
SMM expects the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises to be 65.50% in November, up 3.13 percentage points MoM but down 16.18 percentage points YoY. According to the latest production schedule report for the three major white goods released by ChinaIOL, the total scheduled production for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in November 2025 is 28.47 million units, down 17.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. Due to the high base of air-conditioner sales last year driven by national subsidies, and impacted by tariffs and seasonal factors this year, air-conditioner production and sales have fallen short of expectations. The November production schedule has been revised down from previous plans, with OEMs also citing high raw material costs as a factor. Significant improvement is also not expected in December.
US tariffs are affecting the cost of air-conditioner exports and the stability of overseas orders. As air-conditioner enterprises shift capacity overseas, copper pipe & tube factories are also considering building new capacity abroad. It is understood that Thailand and the US are likely to be the countries with significant future increases in overseas copper pipe & tube capacity.
