[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Capital Inflows Coupled With Expectations of Supply Tightening, SHFE Aluminum's Strong Rising Momentum Continues] The end of the prolonged US federal government shutdown eliminated an external economic uncertainty risk, slightly easing market sentiment. Domestically, the core positive factor lies in the comprehensive strengthening of October's leading economic indicators, with offline consumption heating up, especially the dual increase in infrastructure operating rates and workload MoM, indicating resilient consumption in aluminum downstream sectors such as construction extrusions and industrial profiles. Furthermore, although the full exemption of NEV purchase tax is about to end, major automakers are funding "bottom-guarantee" sales promotions themselves, which will stimulate front-load orders in the short term, providing a pulse-like boost to aluminum demand for automotive materials. Overall, the current macro front is filled with positive sentiment, and fundamentals side, overseas supply is expected to tighten, giving capital bullish momentum. Significant capital inflows into SHFE aluminum futures provide further upward momentum for aluminum prices; the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract broke through 22,000 yuan/mt. Bear funds remain on the sidelines, awaiting an opportunity to enter. However, domestic fundamentals do not provide sufficient support for aluminum prices to sustain further sharp gains. The proportion of liquid aluminum already pulled back this week, and persistently high prices are expected to suppress end-use consumption. Downstream processors' sentiment for purchasing spot cargo remained weak this week. Subsequent monitoring of downstream operating conditions is necessary. In the short term, the pattern of aluminum prices fluctuating at highs remains unchanged.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Cast Aluminum Contract Approaches High of 21,400 Yuan/mt, Market Wariness of High Prices Increases] Overall, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. Cost-side support remains relatively solid, with tight supply of aluminum scrap unlikely to ease soon, and raw material prices more likely to rise than fall. Demand side shows some resilience, coupled with low industry inventory, just-in-time procurement will provide a floor for prices. However, as aluminum prices have already reached yearly highs, downstream acceptance has declined, which may limit further upside room.

[SMM Analysis]ADC12 Aluminum Alloy Price Hits Yearly High, Aluminum Scrap Cost Exceeds 90%

[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Influx of Funds Pushed Up SHFE Aluminum Futures, the Most-Traded SHFE Aluminum Contract Broke Through the 22,000 Mark]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: U.S. and Mexico Suspend Sanctions Against China, Multiple Positive Factors Support Short-Term Strength in Aluminum Prices] Overall, positive signals from a macro perspective have strengthened market optimism regarding aluminum fundamentals. Expectations for improved domestic and external demand jointly drive short- to medium-term price rises. However, the emergence of off-season demand characteristics and marginal inventory accumulation will limit upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Most-Traded Contract Fluctuated and Closed Lower, Cost Support Remains Strong] Aluminum prices extended slight gains on Wednesday, with ADC12 prices holding steady at 21,500 yuan/mt. Currently, tight supply of aluminum scrap persists, coupled with prices of auxiliary materials such as copper fluctuating at highs, providing strong cost-side support. ADC12 prices still have upward momentum in the short term. Although end-use consumption resilience provides a cushion on the demand side, aluminum prices are at high levels, leading to cautious downstream procurement. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well.

The production cuts affected the entire country, reducing the total operating capacity of aluminum rods by 792,000 mt in November. Based on SMM's sample capacity of domestic aluminum rods of 8.385 million mt, the scale of these cuts accounted for nearly 10% of the total sample, indicating a significant contraction in supply. Regionally, Inner Mongolia led the reductions with a cut of 252,000 mt, followed by Shandong and Shanxi (144,000 mt each), Guangxi and Henan (72,000 mt each), and Guizhou, Ningxia, and Chongqing (36,000 mt each). If downstream demand continues to show no signs of recovery, the scope of production cuts may further expand.

After the energy crisis in the 1970s, Japan's aluminum industry rapidly contracted, with annual capacity shrinking from a peak of 1.5 million mt to less than 10,000 mt per year. Japan's aluminum supply relies mainly on imports, with the majority of its aluminum demand being met through imports of primary aluminum, aluminum alloy ingots, and other forms. On the demand side, Japan's well-developed automotive industry places a high priority on lightweighting of vehicles, leading to the extensive use of aluminum-based materials to replace steel and reduce vehicle weight. Additionally, the construction sector serves as another major area of aluminum consumption. In recent years, although Japan's primary aluminum consumption has declined due to economic pressures and tariff impacts, annual imports of primary aluminum remain at the million-mt level, making Japan one of the world's largest net importers of aluminum ingots. Meanwhile, the Aluminium P1020A (MJP) quarterly premium, cif Japan, commonly referred to as MJP, has long served as one of the primary pricing benchmarks for Asia and surrounding markets. Against this backdrop, SMM launched on November 17, 2025: Aluminium P1020A (MJP) quarterly premium, cif Japan, $/tonne; Aluminium P1020A (MJP) spot premium, cif Japan, $/tonne. Historical prices can be viewed simultaneously on the SMM official website. These prices serve as indicative benchmarks used by trading parties for settlement reference.