Copper prices fluctuated downward, and the supply-demand pattern in the secondary copper market underwent changes—awaiting direction amid policy observation.

Copper prices experienced a significant pullback this week with limited rebound, accumulating a decline of 1,400 yuan/mt. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was quoted at 77,800-78,000 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt week-on-week. Following the US Fed's interest rate cut and the implementation of favorable China-US tariff policies, copper prices entered a macro event "vacuum period," showing a short-term trend in the doldrums, which directly led to a sharp pullback in prices on Tuesday. The notable high-level correction in copper prices significantly dampened the confidence of secondary copper raw material suppliers, resulting in a clear reduction in shipments. According to the SMM Recycled Copper Raw Materials Procurement and Sales Sentiment Index, the market sales index retreated from 2.8 to 2.75. Meanwhile, end-user procurement sentiment recovered somewhat as copper prices pulled back, with secondary copper rod enterprises seeing an increase in orders, and the procurement sentiment index rising from 2.53 to 2.54. However, due to the weakened willingness to sell among secondary copper raw material suppliers, the weekly raw material inventory of sampled secondary copper rod enterprises fell from 6,300 mt last week to 4,600 mt.

According to SMM data, the operating rate for secondary copper rod this week was 27.57%, up 4.77 percentage points WoW and up 2.65 percentage points YoY. The average price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,475 yuan/mt, narrowing 373 yuan/mt WoW. The average discount of secondary copper rod in Jiangxi against copper futures was 990 yuan/mt, narrowing 428 yuan/mt WoW. Based on SMM's gross profit model for secondary copper rod sales, the weekly gross profit was 1,274 yuan/mt, down 328 yuan/mt WoW. SMM's weekly sample data on finished product inventories of secondary copper rod enterprises showed 3,500 mt, flat WoW.

This week, the secondary copper rod market showed a "first suppressed then rising" pattern amid sharp copper price fluctuations, with enterprise operations quickly shifting in response to price changes, overall displaying a rhythm of "wait-and-see – stagnation – tentative recovery." Early in the week, consecutive declines in copper prices dampened market sentiment, making secondary copper rod enterprises cautious in both procurement and sales; a deep drop in copper prices on Wednesday stimulated restocking demand from end-users, leading to a brief improvement in orders; a price rebound on Thursday prompted active restocking by downstream users. Throughout the week, secondary copper rod enterprises exhibited three main characteristics: first, high price sensitivity, with procurement and sales activities closely following intraday copper price movements; second, evident demand elasticity, as end-user buying increased noticeably after copper prices fell below 86,000 yuan/mt, but willingness to chase prices weakened when prices rebounded above 86,000 yuan/mt; third, intensified divergence in sentiment, as despite the order recovery, enterprises remained cautious about the market outlook. The price difference between primary metal and scrap narrowed with reduced fluctuations during the week (amplitude around 143 yuan/mt), indicating relatively ample supply of recycled copper raw materials, while the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod first narrowed then widened, reflecting enterprises' adjustments to finished product prices to maintain profit margins.

Looking ahead to next week, as the conventional off-season begins, copper prices are expected to pull back. With individual regions receiving clear government responses on incentive policies, secondary copper rod plants have successively resumed production, increasing demand for recycled copper raw materials; supply of recycled copper raw materials is expected to tighten compared to the previous period. Market focus centers on whether copper prices can hold steady within the 85,000–86,000 yuan/mt range—if prices stabilize with fluctuations, end-user restocking demand may further release, supporting a rebound in the operating rate of secondary copper rod; but if prices fluctuate significantly again, the cycle of "wait-and-see – stagnation" may recur. On the policy front, attention should be paid to the implementation progress of Notice No. 770, as its directional clarity will directly impact production decisions of regional enterprises.