Costs Down and Prices Up, Aluminum Industry's Average Profit Broke Through 5,000 Yuan/mt in October

SMM News, Nov. 3:

According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in October 2025 was 15,889 yuan/mt, down 1.8% MoM and 13.3% YoY, mainly due to the decline in the average monthly spot alumina price during the period, leading to lower costs. SMM data showed that the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in October was 2,938 yuan/mt (September 26–October 25), down 175 yuan/mt MoM, and the weighted average alumina cost for the national aluminum industry fell 5.5% MoM. The average SMM A00 spot price was approximately 20,911 yuan/mt (September 26–October 25), with the average profit in the domestic aluminum industry reaching about 5,022 yuan/mt.

By the end of October 2025, domestic operating aluminum capacity remained at 44.05 million mt, with the lowest full cost at about 13,230 yuan/mt and the highest full cost at about 19,477 yuan/mt. If calculated based on the monthly average price, 100% of the operating aluminum capacity in China was profitable in October.

Cost side,

For alumina raw materials, SMM data indicated that the monthly average of the SMM alumina index in October was 2,938 yuan/mt (September 26–October 25). During the month, the fundamental supply-demand balance for alumina both domestically and internationally remained in surplus, with domestic spot alumina prices continuing to decline, leading to a further drop in the monthly average price. Entering November, no large-scale production cuts in alumina have been reported, and the import window for alumina remained open, sustaining the surplus in domestic alumina fundamentals. However, sellers held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, while some aluminum plants began winter stockpiling, leading to a slight increase in demand. By early November, the decline in spot alumina prices slowed, with prices stabilizing in some regions. Nevertheless, as absolute prices were lower than the previous month, the average alumina price in November is expected to decline MoM, and alumina costs for aluminum enterprises are projected to decrease further.

In the auxiliary materials market, prices for prebaked anodes and fluoride salts rose simultaneously in October, directly increasing auxiliary material costs for aluminum. In November, market trends diverged: prebaked anode prices continued to rise, supported by earlier cost increases, while fluoride salt prices fell due to weakening cost support from softer fluorite prices in late October. Overall, auxiliary material costs for aluminum in November still showed an increasing trend.

For electricity prices, rates remained largely stable in October. Entering November, with rising coal prices and the approaching dry season, power costs are expected to increase.

Overall, alumina costs were projected to continue declining in November, while auxiliary material and power costs were expected to rebound. Among these factors, the impact from alumina was anticipated to dominate, and aluminum costs were forecast to experience a slight further decrease. In summary, SMM estimated that the average tax-inclusive full cost for the domestic aluminum industry in November 2025 would be around 15,600-16,000 yuan/mt.