[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, the third round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and coke plant profits have recovered. However, coking coal prices continue to rise, suppressing the willingness of coke plants to ramp up production, with some plants expected to intensify production restrictions. Demand side, environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan have ended, and daily average hot metal production has rebounded slightly, leading to increased coke demand. Some steel mills with medium to low inventory are actively restocking. Overall, supported by costs, the coke market is expected to hold up well, but further price increases will face greater difficulty.

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of news, mainstream steel mills have accepted the third round of coke price increases, effective from 00:00 on November 5, marking the official implementation of the third coke price hike. Supply side, with the third coke increase implemented, coke plant profits have improved somewhat, but coking coal prices are expected to rise, keeping coke plant profits under pressure and possibly leading to expanded production restrictions. Demand side, some steel mills are facing losses and may further implement maintenance plans, but low-inventory mills still have restocking needs, supporting the execution of the third coke price increase. Overall, coke fundamentals remain tight, and the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term.

Chinese steel futures rose first and then fell last week, and prices continued to pull back after this week's opening. Current normal HRC export offers are at $460-465/mt, with buyer bids around $445-450/mt. Overseas clients recently held an overall bearish view on the steel market, leading to moderate transaction performance through price reductions. As futures pulled back, market inquiries increased. In the Thai market this week, apart from HRC prices being lowered, most other mainstream imported resources held steady. Traders mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach, awaiting the announcement of ex-factory price policies from mainstream steel mills. It is noteworthy that recent frequent overseas anti-dumping and anti-circumvention investigations mostly involve cold-rolled products and HRC. According to an SMM survey, Thailand has now initiated an anti-circumvention investigation on wide coil. Following Vietnam's wide coil anti-circumvention case, this marks a further strengthening of trade barriers in the Southeast Asian market, and China's subsequent HRC exports are expected to face increased difficulty.

SMM Steel, November 4 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments of mainstream markets this week were 245,800 mt, up 31.51% WoW. By market:

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of news, most steel mills have accepted the third round of coke price increases, which is expected to take effect at midnight on November 5. Supply side, coke producers are experiencing smooth shipments, with low inventory levels at plants. Due to rising costs, coke producers have limited willingness to increase production, making it difficult to boost coke supply. Demand side, hot metal production from steel mill blast furnaces has not declined significantly, and some mills are seeing reduced coke inventories, leading to strong restocking demand for coke. Overall, the coke market fundamentals remain tight, coupled with strong cost support. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well, and the third round of price increases is set to be implemented.

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coke producers' losses have improved, but rising raw material prices continue to constrain production, with expectations of output cuts remaining, making it difficult to increase coke supply. Demand side, recent steel price increases and the recovery of blast furnace hot metal output have maintained rigid demand for coke, with some low-inventory steel mills showing strong willingness to build stocks. Overall, market sentiment is largely bullish, and the third round of price increases is likely to be implemented; the coke market is expected to hold up well in the short term, generally stable with a slight rise.

This week, ferrous metals initially rose before pulling back, with an overall upward trend. In the first half of the week, due to the release of news over the weekend that "China and the US reached a basic consensus in consultations," coupled with mid-week announcements from five departments addressing "involution-style" competition, ferrous metals opened higher and surged rapidly. In the latter half of the week, on the fundamental side, the inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and China and the US held a successful meeting, though without any unexpectedly positive content. Market sentiment pulled back after peaking, and ferrous metals prices followed suit with a decline. In the spot market, futures experienced significant volatility this week, boosting market activity. Both speculative and arbitrage demand entered the market, but end-users remained relatively cautious...

[SMM Coal and Coke Daily Briefing] In terms of news, major coke enterprises have initiated the third round of coke price increases, but as of Friday afternoon, no steel mills have responded. Supply side, some coke plants are affected by losses and environmental protection measures, leading to reduced production enthusiasm and lower coke output, with supply likely to continue tightening. Demand side, environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Hebei have been lifted, and hot metal production is expected to recover next week. Some steel mills with low inventory are urging deliveries, indicating strong rigid demand for coke. Overall, the coke supply-demand fundamentals remain tight, and the third round of coke price increases is strongly expected to be implemented next week.

[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Briefing] Supply side, coking costs continue to increase slightly, with most coke enterprises experiencing poor profitability and some even operating at a loss, leaving limited room for production increases. Additionally, coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and their coke inventories generally remain low. Demand side, hot metal production at steel mills in Hebei has declined, and short-term environmental protection-driven production restrictions have weakened coke demand. However, with steel prices rebounding and profits recovering, coupled with low coke inventories at some steel mills, coke procurement has increased. Overall, market bullish sentiment is growing, with most coke enterprises having initiated a third round of price increases for coke. In the short term, the coke market is expected to operate generally stable with a slight rise.

Based on the current production situation and market demand, starting October 30, Longgang, Shanxi Jingang Group, Shanxi Jianlong, Shanxi Jianbang, and JISCO will adjust the price spread for construction steel specification groups.