Improved Supply-Demand Mismatch in Blister Copper in China, Q4 Market Structure Expected to Ease [SMM Analysis]

SMM November 3 News:

In October 2025, SMM's quoted blister copper RCs in south China were 850-1,150 yuan/mt, with an average of 1,000 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt MoM; blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 650-850 yuan/mt, averaging 750 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt MoM; import blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at $85-95/mt, averaging $90/mt, up $5/mt MoM.

The tight situation in the blister copper market eased in October, and SMM expects the market to gradually loosen entering November.

Blister copper RCs rebounded across the board in October, improving the persistent supply-demand mismatch seen in Q3. One reason was a recovery on the supply side: sustained sharp increases in copper prices since October stimulated suppliers' willingness to sell recycled copper raw materials, releasing supply and offsetting production losses in blister copper and anode plates due to uncertainties around the "770" policy. Another factor was the concentrated maintenance period for domestic smelters' primary smelting stages during October-November, which reduced blister copper demand while increasing anode plate demand, leading to a larger increase in blister copper RCs compared to anode plate processing fees.

SMM's latest weekly blister copper RCs in south China were quoted at 1,000-1,200 yuan/mt, averaging 1,100 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW; weekly blister copper RCs in north China were quoted at 800-1,000 yuan/mt, averaging 900 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW; weekly import blister copper RCs CIF China were quoted at $85-95/mt, averaging $90/mt, flat WoW; anode plate processing fees were quoted at 700-800 yuan/mt, averaging 750 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt WoW.

China's blister copper RCs are expected to continue rising in November, with the market structure shifting from tight to loose. Supply side, strong copper prices continue to drive increased supply of recycled copper raw materials, due to high supplier selling willingness and high copper prices suppressing end-use consumption, leading to lower raw material procurement by secondary copper rod enterprises and more recycled copper flowing to smelting. Additionally, current discounts for secondary copper rod against futures exceed 1,000 yuan/mt, combined with wide price differences between primary metal and scrap, downstream payment terms, by-product revenue, and pricing rights, resulting in poor profits for semi-finished copper products, prompting some capacity to shift to blister copper and anode plates. Meanwhile, SMM understands some enterprises that had halted production due to policy uncertainties have resumed operations. Demand side, many smelters remain under maintenance in November, with higher procurement demand for anode plates compared to blister copper.

Overall, blister copper RC centers domestically and overseas are expected to trend upward in Q4. Although earlier uncertainties from the "770" policy caused some enterprises to halt production, SMM expects that with the sharp rise in copper prices, increased supply of recycled copper raw materials, expanded price differences between primary metal and scrap leading to higher production of scrap-derived blister copper and anode plates domestically, and the shift of secondary copper rod capacity to smelting will be key factors improving the supply-demand mismatch, providing core support for sustained increases in processing fees.