Weaker Raw Material Prices to Drive Further Decline in Alumina Production Costs in November

SMM News, Nov. 3：

The national weighted average full cost of alumina in October was approximately 2,956 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton month-on-month; the weighted average cash cost was about 2,786 yuan/ton.

Cost Breakdown:

• Bauxite: In October, the price of imported bauxite bulk cargo from Guinea fluctuated around $69-73 per ton, with the average price recorded at $71.8 per ton. Australian bauxite prices remained generally stable. The bauxite market cost continues to weaken, and prices have begun to loosen slightly, showing a slight downward trend. Entering November, domestic bauxite supply is expected to remain relatively tight due to the rainy season causing supply constraints. Restart plans still require approval from local governments, and prices are forecast to increase slightly compared to October. For imported bauxite, although arrivals in November are expected to remain at low levels for the year due to the earlier rainy season in Guinea, the absolute supply volume remains high, and no significant supply gap has emerged in the bauxite market fundamentals. Currently, alumina plants hold high absolute inventory levels of bauxite, and buyers, due to narrowing alumina margins, have strong intentions to push prices down. Resistance to high-priced bauxite persists in the market. The Q4 long-term contract price for bauxite has declined quarter-on-quarter, and spot bauxite prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Comprehensive assessment suggests that the cost of bauxite raw material for alumina is expected to trend downward, primarily because the proportion of imported bauxite is higher than that of domestic bauxite. Close attention should be paid subsequently to changes in port inventories and the raw material procurement strategies of various manufacturers.

• Caustic Soda: In October, the domestic caustic soda market showed regional divergence. Long-term contract prices in Shanxi and Henan decreased, leading to lower local caustic soda costs. Prices in Shandong showed a weak downward trend, while prices in Guangxi remained flat compared to September. Overall, the caustic soda cost for alumina enterprises in October trended downward. Entering November, long-term contract prices in Shanxi and Henan fell by 200 yuan/ton. Long-term contract prices in Guangxi are expected to decrease by 100-200 yuan/ton. Current prices in Shandong continue to be lower than previous levels, and the monthly average price is expected to be lower than October's level. Overall, caustic soda prices across regions are generally under pressure, and the cost of caustic soda used for alumina production in November is expected to show a downward trend.

​

In summary, the national weighted average full cost of alumina in November is predicted to experience a minor decline, operating within the range of approximately 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton; the cash cost is expected to operate within the range of approximately 2,710 - 2,810 yuan/ton.