[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Fear of High Prices Intensifies, Secondary Aluminum Transactions Weaken but Cost Support Keeps Prices Firm] Yesterday, aluminum prices temporarily ended their consecutive rising trend, with SMM A00 aluminum spot prices holding steady at 21,440 yuan/mt. In the secondary aluminum market, ADC12 prices remained stable at 21,400 yuan/mt. Due to fear of high prices, downstream buyers showed limited willingness to chase rising prices, leading to weaker market transactions and a slight accumulation of finished product inventories at some enterprises. Raw material supply remains tight, keeping procurement costs high for secondary aluminum producers. Combined with support from the supply side, ADC12 prices are likely to maintain a firm trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors, SHFE Aluminum Maintains Fluctuating Trend] On the night of November 4, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened higher but came under pressure and pulled back, then entered a period of consolidation, ultimately stabilizing at a high level. The 2512 contract opened at 21,395 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,440 yuan/mt and a low of 21,335 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, down 0.28% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,403 > MA10: 21,320 > MA20: 21,140.25 > MA60: 20,845.83), while the MACD on the 4-hour candlestick chart maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 125.94, DEA: 115.85). In terms of trend, although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend remains technically intact, though short-term pullback risks should be noted.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Supply Side Dominate the Market, SHFE Aluminum to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] On the night of November 3, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, fluctuated higher, and overall remained stable at highs. It opened at 21,555 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,610 yuan/mt and a low of 21,435 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,570 yuan/mt, up 0.42% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,402 > MA10: 21,294.5 > MA20: 21,109.75 > MA60: 20,831.33), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 133.99, DEA: 108.41). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,570 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend has not been technically broken.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Most-Traded Contract Fluctuates at Highs Above 21,000 yuan/mt, Focus on Breakthrough of Previous High and Downstream Order Performance] On Monday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 100 yuan/mt to 21,400 yuan/mt. The tight raw material supply continued, with aluminum scrap market showing signs of holding back cargoes, and procurement costs for secondary aluminum plants kept climbing. Although end-use consumption remained resilient, the rapid price surge has triggered wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises, and the transaction pace slowed down. Overall, cost and supply-side support currently dominate, and ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with attention needed on raw material prices, inventory changes, and downstream order performance.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Aluminum Contract Approaches the 21,000 yuan/mt Mark, Maintaining an Upward Trend in the Short Term] Last Friday, the SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 80 yuan/mt compared to the previous day, reaching 21,280 yuan/mt, continuing its rebound trend. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 21,300 yuan/mt. The current tight supply of aluminum scrap remains unchanged, coupled with copper prices repeatedly hitting new highs, driving up raw material costs. Enterprises are forced to purchase at high prices to ensure order fulfillment. Due to factors such as insufficient raw material circulation, high raw material costs eroding profits, and uncertain policies in regions like Jiangxi and Anhui, industry supply has contracted. Overall demand remains resilient, with some secondary aluminum plants recently reporting an increase in orders. However, constrained by low inventories of both finished products and raw materials, enterprises are adopting more cautious order-taking strategies, providing some support to market prices. Overall, cost and supply-side support currently dominate. It is expected that ADC12 prices will continue to hold up well in the short term, with attention needed on raw material prices, inventory changes, and downstream order performance.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Aluminum Rises After Fluctuating Higher in Night Session, Short-Term Outlook Remains Strong] On the night of October 31, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, then fluctuated higher and stabilized at high levels overall. It opened at 21,360 yuan/mt, hit a high of 21,470 yuan/mt and a low of 21,355 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,415 yuan/mt, up 0.54% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,279 > MA10: 21,215.5 > MA20: 21,058.25 > MA60: 20,808.5), and the MACD 4-hour candlestick maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 103.23, DEA: 96.87). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,415 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend has not been technically broken. Resistance is expected in the 21,350-21,550 yuan/mt range, and support in the 20,650-20,850 yuan/mt range.

[Analysis by SMM: Upgraded Tariff Barriers in Mexico Present Resilience and Challenges for China's Aluminum Semis and Products Exports to Mexico] As a key participant in the global aluminum industry chain, China's aluminum semis and products exports to Mexico have shown a complex pattern of "resilience and challenges" coexisting amid recent trade frictions. In recent years, Sino-Mexican trade relations have become strained due to multiple unilateral tariff hikes and restrictive measures imposed by Mexico, creating a dynamic of "Mexico taking the initiative to apply pressure, while China responds with precise countermeasures." Combining SMM's exclusive monthly export data from 2023-2025 and the latest tariff policy updates from Mexico, we conduct an in-depth analysis from four dimensions: policy impact, data trends, causes and effects, and industry responses.

According to SMM statistics, as of October 31, 2025, the domestic days of inventories at aluminum rod plants were 7.6 days, an increase of 0.57 days WoW. Aluminum rod inventory continued to show a buildup trend, and the market oversupply situation saw no significant improvement. In terms of inventory ratio, the domestic in-factory inventory ratio for aluminum rod plants recorded 74.12%, up 4.04% WoW, and the pressure from inventory accumulation remained unrelieved.