Downstream Purchasing Enthusiasm Slightly Declined, Short-Term Lead Price Rebound May Be Relatively Limited [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

On Friday evening, LME lead opened at $2,202.5/mt, fluctuated downward during the Asian session, rose to a high of $2,025/mt upon entering the European session, and finally closed at this level, up $3/mt, a gain of 0.15%. On Friday evening, SHFE lead opened at 17,390 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward after opening, and finally closed at 17,365 yuan/mt.

On the Macro Front:

The latest data from the US Treasury Department showed that the total national debt exceeded $38 trillion, with the debt scale continuing to expand. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicated that the official manufacturing PMI pulled back to 49.0% in October, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded to 50.1%.

:

SHFE lead fluctuated and rebounded, but the gains were limited. Suppliers offered fewer quotations, and ex-works premiums for some primary lead from smelters in South China were lowered again. Mainstream origin quotations were at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary refined lead quotations were maintained at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works. Downstream enterprises' procurement enthusiasm was generally moderate at month-end, with only some making just-in-time procurement. Spot order market transactions showed no significant improvement for the time being.

Inventory: As of October 31, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,875 mt to 220,300 mt. As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM reached 29,800 mt, down 2,100 mt from October 23 and about 500 mt from October 27, hitting a new low since September 2, 2024.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Macro tailwinds continued to ferment, providing bottom support for lead prices. In the lead spot market, supply of primary lead and secondary refined lead gradually recovered. Finished product inventories at primary lead smelters accumulated slightly, and spot market supply gradually became sufficient. Expected supply recovery and import arrivals kept lead prices under pressure. The peak season for downstream batteries was nearing its end, with some battery enterprises focusing on digesting finished product inventories, leading to a slight decline in procurement enthusiasm. The room for a short-term rebound in lead prices may be relatively limited.

Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.