[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Strong Macro Sentiment at Home and Abroad, Aluminum Prices Continue to Fluctuate at Highs]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tight Raw Material Supply and Downstream Caution Lead to Slight Divergence in ADC12 Quotations] Yesterday, the ADC12 price decreased by 50 yuan/mt to 21,350 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high aluminum prices pulling back, market quotations showed divergence: some enterprises quickly followed with a drop of 100 yuan/mt, while others maintained their quotes and adopted a wait-and-see approach. Due to recent intensified price fluctuations, downstream procurement has become more cautious, with restocking primarily driven by rigid demand. Raw material supply remains tight, and procurement costs for secondary aluminum plants stay high. Coupled with support from the supply side, ADC12 prices are expected to remain firm in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Macro and Fundamentals in a Tug-of-War, Aluminum Prices Expected to Hover at Highs in the Short Term] During the night session on November 5, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, surged, and then entered a phase of consolidation. The 2512 contract opened at 21,355 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,475 yuan/mt, a low of 21,330 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,450 yuan/mt, up 0.26% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system shows a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,442 > MA10: 21,347.5 > MA20: 21,158 > MA60: 20,861.42), but in the 4-hour MACD candlestick indicator, the DIFF (115.12) and DEA (116.08) formed a death cross. In terms of trend, after reaching a recent high of 21,655, SHFE aluminum experienced a pullback, facing short-term technical correction pressure. The night session closed at 21,450, aligning with the MA5, indicating weakened short-term bullish momentum and highlighting the need to be cautious of near-term correction risks.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Fear of High Prices Intensifies, Secondary Aluminum Transactions Weaken but Cost Support Keeps Prices Firm] Yesterday, aluminum prices temporarily ended their consecutive rising trend, with SMM A00 aluminum spot prices holding steady at 21,440 yuan/mt. In the secondary aluminum market, ADC12 prices remained stable at 21,400 yuan/mt. Due to fear of high prices, downstream buyers showed limited willingness to chase rising prices, leading to weaker market transactions and a slight accumulation of finished product inventories at some enterprises. Raw material supply remains tight, keeping procurement costs high for secondary aluminum producers. Combined with support from the supply side, ADC12 prices are likely to maintain a firm trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors, SHFE Aluminum Maintains Fluctuating Trend] On the night of November 4, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened higher but came under pressure and pulled back, then entered a period of consolidation, ultimately stabilizing at a high level. The 2512 contract opened at 21,395 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,440 yuan/mt and a low of 21,335 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, down 0.28% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,403 > MA10: 21,320 > MA20: 21,140.25 > MA60: 20,845.83), while the MACD on the 4-hour candlestick chart maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 125.94, DEA: 115.85). In terms of trend, although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend remains technically intact, though short-term pullback risks should be noted.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Supply Side Dominate the Market, SHFE Aluminum to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] On the night of November 3, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened lower, fluctuated higher, and overall remained stable at highs. It opened at 21,555 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,610 yuan/mt and a low of 21,435 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,570 yuan/mt, up 0.42% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,402 > MA10: 21,294.5 > MA20: 21,109.75 > MA60: 20,831.33), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 133.99, DEA: 108.41). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,570 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend has not been technically broken.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cast Aluminum Most-Traded Contract Fluctuates at Highs Above 21,000 yuan/mt, Focus on Breakthrough of Previous High and Downstream Order Performance] On Monday, the SMM ADC12 price rose by 100 yuan/mt to 21,400 yuan/mt. The tight raw material supply continued, with aluminum scrap market showing signs of holding back cargoes, and procurement costs for secondary aluminum plants kept climbing. Although end-use consumption remained resilient, the rapid price surge has triggered wait-and-see sentiment among downstream enterprises, and the transaction pace slowed down. Overall, cost and supply-side support currently dominate, and ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with attention needed on raw material prices, inventory changes, and downstream order performance.