According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in October 2025 (31 days) increased 1.13% YoY and 3.52% MoM. The traditional peak season continued in October. Although the October peak season was slightly weaker than expected, the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded more than expected as downstream processing plants near the smelters resumed and increased production. The industry's proportion of liquid aluminum rose 1.4 percentage points MoM to 77.7% this month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, China's aluminum casting ingot production in September decreased 13.5% YoY and fell 2.6% MoM to around 834,000 mt.
Capacity changes: By the end of October, SMM statistics showed that China's existing aluminum capacity was approximately 45.84 million mt (SMM made revisions after considering capacity replacement and old plant demolitions, excluding some double-counted capacity). Domestic operating aluminum capacity was about 44.06 million mt, flat from the previous month.
Production forecast: Entering November 2025, winter environmental protection restrictions are expected to affect operations at some enterprises. However, considering that aluminum production cannot immediately drop to zero shortly after pot shutdowns, the change in production is expected to be relatively small. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, some enterprises reported that end-user demand is expected to weaken next month, and the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to pull back, particularly in the second half of November, when the expectation for a pullback strengthens. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to decrease 0.7 percentage points to 77.0%. Subsequent attention should be paid to orders on hand at processing enterprises and the sustainability of demand in sectors such as automobiles.
[Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]
