Supply-Demand Tight Balance Intensifies, Ample Upward Momentum for Petroleum Coke in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

Published: Oct 31, 2025 21:45

Save

Overall, the petroleum coke market currently shows a pattern of tightening supply and increasing demand. At the month-end to early-month period, restocking needs for some enterprises became prominent. Coupled with expectations of higher prebaked anode prices in November boosting purchasing enthusiasm, SMM expects upward momentum for petroleum coke prices to persist in the short term.

SMM News on October 31:

This week, the petroleum coke market saw continued active trading, with smooth shipments from refineries and strong purchasing enthusiasm from downstream sectors, leading to a broad-based price increase. For major refineries, CNOOC's refineries witnessed active participation in bidding, with petroleum coke prices rising significantly by 150-600 yuan/mt, and current prices concentrated in the range of 4,200-4,700 yuan/mt. Notably, Zhoushan Petrochemical is expected to undergo maintenance, and affected by supply reduction, its price rose 600 yuan/mt WoW. PetroChina's refineries in north-east China experienced tightening low-sulphur petroleum coke supply, with good shipment performance; prices remained largely stable WoW, and current petroleum coke prices are concentrated at 3,846-4,410 yuan/mt. Additionally, Dagang Petrochemical in north China raised its petroleum coke price by 180 yuan/mt WoW to 4,330 yuan/mt. According to SMM, petroleum coke prices in north-east China are still expected to rise, with Fushun Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Jinxi Petrochemical, and Daqing Petrochemical projected to increase prices by 100-200 yuan/mt starting November 1. Sinopec focused on volume shipments WoW, with petroleum coke prices rising slightly within 100 yuan/mt. For local refineries, daytime trading activity was strong, and petroleum coke prices continued to climb. As of today, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries was about 2,918 yuan/mt, up 5% WoW from last Friday.

For imported coke, driven by continuous domestic price increases and strong downstream purchasing enthusiasm, imported coke prices also rose. Port shipment pace accelerated, inventory continued to decline, and traders, after smooth shipments, showed strong bullish sentiment and reluctance to sell, leading to limited spot cargo sales at ports, with the market dominated by small-lot transactions.

Supply side, the tightening trend in the petroleum coke market intensified WoW, with an increase in the number of enterprises under maintenance among both major and local refineries: among major refineries, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Luoyang Petrochemical remained under maintenance, while Yunnan Petrochemical newly joined the maintenance list WoW; among local refineries, two units—Lanjiao Petrochemical and Tianhong Petrochemical—were newly shut down for maintenance. Coupled with production declines at some enterprises, domestic petroleum coke supply further contracted, supporting price increases.

Demand side, prebaked anode enterprises maintained good operating rates, and recent new capacity additions brought some incremental demand; calcined petroleum coke enterprises saw product prices rise due to raw material cost pass-through, with moderate shipment performance; the negative electrode material market had sufficient downstream orders. Multiple downstream sectors contributed to demand growth, effectively absorbing the market impact of supply contraction. Additionally, as winter stockpiling commenced in north-west China approaching winter, petroleum coke demand increased further.

Overall, the petroleum coke market currently shows a pattern of tightening supply and increasing demand. At the month-end to early-month period, restocking needs for some enterprises became prominent. Coupled with expectations of higher prebaked anode prices in November boosting purchasing enthusiasm, SMM expects upward momentum for petroleum coke prices to persist in the short term.

petcoke

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

China's Secondary Aluminum Alloy Ingot Inventory Down 81 mt, Continues Mild Destocking Trend

[SMM Flash] Inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in China’s major consumption hubs fell by 81 mt from the previous day today, maintaining a mild destocking trend.

1 hour ago

2 hours ago

Uncertainty Still Surrounds the Geopolitical Situation in the Middle East, and Aluminum Prices Still Have Short-Term Upward Momentum [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Briefing: The Geopolitical Situation in the Middle East Remains Unclear, and Aluminum Prices Still Have Upward Momentum in the Short Term] Overall, macro geopolitical risks are providing support at the bottom. Although the continued buildup in domestic social inventory is exerting bearish pressure on aluminum prices, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unclear. If the conflict continues, expectations for global aluminum supply to tighten are strong, and aluminum prices still have solid upward momentum. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to hold up well.

2 hours ago

SHFE Aluminum Saw Wide Swings for Multiple Days, While Alloy Followed the Uptrend Strongly [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: SHFE Aluminum Has Seen Wide Swings for Many Days, While Alloys Rose Strongly in Tandem] Yesterday, the SMM ADC12 price increased by 500 yuan/mt, with the center of market quotations shifting up significantly. Most producers raised prices by 500–600 yuan/mt. Recently, raw material prices have continued to strengthen, and the cost side has risen rapidly, providing a clear boost to enterprise quotations. However, downstream demand remained relatively stable. Most enterprises reported that orders and inquiries were generally average, while downstream procurement still mainly focused on restocking as needed. Supported by cost pressure and market expectations, enterprises showed a relatively clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, against the backdrop of cost support and mild supply release, ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well. The medium-term trend still depends on the recovery of end-use consumption. If orders in the die-casting industry increase significantly, the price center is expected to move further upward; if the demand recovery falls short of expectations, coupled with a continued increase in the supply-side operating rate, prices will shift into high-level consolidation.

2 hours ago