Silver Ingot Production Declined in October, Concentrated Exports Led to Reduced Inventory at Domestic Smelters

In October 2025, domestic silver production decreased by 3.55% MoM. Major supply provinces included Henan, Yunnan, Shandong, and Zhejiang. Although maintenance at some lead smelters had a certain impact on silver ingot supply, due to high enthusiasm for precious metal production, the by-product silver ingot output from lead smelters did not decrease significantly. The reduction in silver ingot supply mainly stemmed from maintenance at copper smelters and inventory counting activities at individual smelters. Additionally, lead-zinc smelters in Guangxi, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia are expected to further reduce production in November due to raw material grade issues.

Inventory side, since the end of September, many smelters have significantly increased the proportion of export supply due to the opening of the export window and concentrated processing trade exports. These smelters only maintained the minimum supply volume for domestic long-term agreement orders. The short squeeze situation in the overseas market spread to the domestic market, leading to smelter inventories being nearly sold out by the end of October, a decrease of nearly 50% compared to the end of September. The domestic spot market saw consecutive days of silver ingot premium quotes, with prices ranging between 30-50 yuan per mt. According to SMM, some producers still have no plans to supply spot orders to the domestic market in early November. However, with the easing of liquidity issues in the London market and declining export profits, it is expected that domestic circulating supply will gradually increase.