China's Oct Alumina Output Dipped Further Cuts Expected in November

SMM October 31 News:

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in October 2025 (31 days) increased by 2.39% month-on-month and 6.79% year-on-year. As of the end of October, China's built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina was approximately 110.32 million tons, while the actual operating capacity fell by 0.92% month-on-month, with an operating rate of 83.09%.

The daily average output of alumina saw a slight decline this month, mainly due to the following factors: in late October, some alumina plants in the north were constrained by routine calciner maintenance and tight supply of domestic bauxite due to the rainy season, which affected production at some enterprises. At the same time, smelting loads in southern regions also decreased, leading to a decline in output. The average monthly price of alumina in October approached the industry's average cost line, with some high-cost enterprises already falling into a loss-making state. However, due to long-term delivery obligations, operational pressures continued to mount, forcing sporadic northern enterprises to adopt production reduction measures. Overall, due to maintenance and production cuts at some alumina enterprises in October, the industry's overall operating rate slightly decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a relatively high level.

Forecast for the next month: The alumina market in November is expected to continue in a surplus pattern. After entering November, the average monthly price is projected to face downward pressure and gradually approach the cost line, further narrowing profit margins compared to the previous month. It is anticipated that more enterprises will adopt production reduction and maintenance measures. As the supply side contracts, the current surplus situation is expected to ease to some extent. However, as supply and demand rebalancing will take time, prices are likely to remain under pressure. Additionally, northern enterprises need to be cautious of further production restrictions due to environmental requirements, such as the start of the heating season on November 15 and the annual carbon emission verification. The industry's operating capacity in November is forecasted to be around 88.98 million tons.