[SMM HRC Daily Review] Macro Tailwinds Temporarily Subside, Prices Expected to Be in the Doldrums

Published: Oct 31, 2025 17:38

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HRC prices rose first and then fell this week, with spot prices up 20-60 yuan/mt WoW. Trading activity was moderate to weak during the week, and it was difficult to move goods at higher prices. Key macro events this week mainly revolved around the US Fed interest rate cut and China-US talks, which boosted market sentiment and lent some strength to futures. At the same time, coupled with the impact of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan, ore prices held up well, and the coke price hike was implemented, providing relatively strong overall cost support. Returning to the HRC supply-demand pattern, a slight correction in short-term supply, marginal improvement in demand, and a slight decline in inventory pressure led to some improvement in fundamentals. On the export side, overall HRC exports weakened WoW this week, with order intake falling short of the previous week. Prices rose too quickly, and overseas customers showed limited acceptance. Looking ahead, considering that the impact from maintenance at steel mills is expected to decrease next week and short-term macro factors have temporarily subsided, prices are projected to trade in the doldrums next week, with the most-traded contract fluctuating in the range of 3,250-3,330.

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