[SMM Analysis] Bullish and bearish factors intertwined in the market this week, and nickel prices fluctuated downward.

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This week, the market was influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with recovering macro sentiment and persistent inventory accumulation jointly driving nickel prices to fluctuate downward. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened the week at 122,150 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back, closing at 120,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.14% WoW. LME nickel started the week at $15,370/mt, edged up initially due to improved overseas macro sentiment, but later retreated under fundamental pressure, with the latest quote at $15,200/mt, down 0.85% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 122,250 yuan/mt, down 950 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel this week was 2,400 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -200 to 100 yuan/mt, weakening WoW. As futures prices remained low this week, downstream point-price purchasing sentiment was relatively high.

On the macro front, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected, but Chair Powell clearly indicated that a December rate cut is not a "done deal" and noted significant divergence within the committee. This hawkish tone caused market expectations for another rate cut within the year to plunge from 95% to 65%, triggering a brief rebound in the US dollar index. Policy path uncertainty dampened bullish sentiment, limiting the rebound in nickel prices. The October 30 meeting between the Chinese and US heads of state yielded relatively positive outcomes: the US canceled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and extended the suspension of the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. Additionally, the US will suspend Section 301 investigations into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. This progress eased market concerns over escalating trade friction. However, LME nickel inventory continued to climb to a new record high of 251,706 mt. Nickel prices are expected to trade in a lower range going forward, with a reference range of 119,000–123,000 yuan/mt.

Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at about 2,600 mt this week, down 800 mt WoW.

Domestic social inventory was approximately 48,100 mt, destocking 698 mt WoW.