This week, prices of salt products such as cobalt sulphate and nickel sulphate remained stable, while lithium carbonate prices began to rise steadily due to solid fundamentals, including strong demand. As lithium chemicals rose, the lithium payables for ternary and LCO black mass increased slightly, while discount coefficients for nickel and cobalt remained stable. For LFP black mass, prices per % lithium rose this week in line with higher lithium chemical prices. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, current prices are 2,900-3,100 yuan/mtu, up 150 yuan/mtu WoW. For ternary black mass, the nickel and cobalt payables currently stand at 75.5-76%, flat WoW, while lithium payables rose to 71-74% MoM. On the profit side, externally purchased LFP black mass used in lithium carbonate production continued to incur losses, with profit margins ranging from -5% to 6%. Except for several newly commissioned LFP battery hydrometallurgy recycling plants this year, most LFP recycling enterprises have production lines capable of processing other raw materials to produce lithium carbonate. Therefore, even as lithium carbonate prices improved, many companies chose to halt purchasing and production in the face of losses. Similarly, in the ternary hydrometallurgy sector, profits hovered around 1-3%. In the LCO hydrometallurgy sector, as cobalt prices continued to rise, driving up cobalt payables for upstream and downstream recycling companies, profits recently declined to around 1-3%. Supply side, following the price increases in nickel, cobalt, and lithium, upstream recyclers quickly raised prices for batteries and pole pieces, including LCO and LFP types, with black mass prices also increasing to some extent. Despite ongoing losses, most companies adopted a wait-and-see approach, with many LFP hydrometallurgy plants maintaining toll processing for Business clients.

This week, the spot price of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. Supply side, differentiation was observed, as low margins for refined cobalt led many smelters to halt production, while enterprises that continued operations generally suspended quotations under cost pressure. Recently, futures experienced significant volatility, and some traders faced funding pressure, actively offloading cargo with relatively low spot-futures price spreads. Demand side, downstream enterprises were concerned about further price declines, resulting in weak purchase willingness and continued just-in-time procurement pace, with no significant increase in overall transaction volume. Overall, after recent adjustments in cobalt futures prices, the price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salt remained within a reasonable range. Future price increases for refined cobalt will depend on being driven up by cobalt salt prices.

Spot prices for cobalt intermediate products maintained an upward trend this week. Since international miners halted quotations in September, the market has remained seller-dominated with limited changes. In terms of supply, major miners and traders continued to suspend offers. On the demand side, overall market activity saw limited changes, with downstream smelters gradually raising their inquiry prices. However, constrained by suppliers' firm stance on refusing to budge on prices, actual transactions remained sluggish, and the market continued to exhibit a "price without market" pattern. On October 16, the DRC announced the lifting of the ban, but due to procedural issues, shipments from ports have not yet resumed. Considering the two-to-three-month shipping time from the DRC to China, China's cobalt raw material supply is expected to remain structurally tight until the first quarter of next year, and cobalt intermediate product prices are anticipated to retain further upward momentum.

Spot cobalt sulphate prices remained stable this week. Supply side, smelters believed the cobalt market would remain tight in the future, were bullish on the outlook, and refused to budge on prices. Demand side, downstream producers actively stockpiled after the National Day holiday, with some enterprises having completed this year's stockpiling. At this period, purchasing sentiment was weak, and it was difficult to accept smelters' high quotations. Overall, upstream and downstream enterprises still diverged on prices, and the market remained in a deadlock in the short term. Cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain stable, waiting for downstream players to gradually digest and accept the prices. The next round of cobalt salt price increases is expected to wait until downstream players begin a new round of purchasing.