[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: The Most-Traded Contract Fluctuated Upward Overnight, Aluminum Tense Scrap Series Rose 100 Yuan/mt MoM] Overnight, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2512 futures contract opened at the day's low of 20,540 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, hitting a high of 20,690 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,680 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt or 0.51% from the previous close. Trading volume was 617 lots, and open interest was 5,096 lots, with bears mainly reducing positions. Technical indicators suggest that the aluminum alloy 2512 futures contract is in a short-term bullish trend, with the moving averages in a bullish alignment providing strong support, and the price stabilizing and rebounding above the support level; however, attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance level at 20,775.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Strong Macro Support Maintains Aluminum Prices Fluctuating at Highs] On the night session of October 28, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,180 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 21,280 yuan/mt and the lowest price at 21,155 yuan/mt, finally settling at 21,245 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. The night session showed a pattern of rising initially and then fluctuating, with the trading center moving upward. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages continued their bullish alignment (MA5: 21,249.00 > MA10: 21,205.00 > MA20: 21,077.25 > MA60: 20,918.67), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick level saw a narrowing of the red bars, maintaining a golden cross state (DIFF: 99.48, DEA: 87.72). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel but is experiencing a short-term pullback. Based on recent highs and lows (low: 20,640, high: around 21,365), the resistance level is expected to be in the range of 21,350-21,550, and the support level in the range of 20,650-20,850.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Imported ADC12 Prices Rise, but Short-Term Import Profits Remain in Inverted Territory] Currently, the tight supply-demand balance for aluminum scrap persists in the market, with procurement costs climbing further. Enterprises are generally purchasing at high prices to ensure order fulfillment, while low-priced sources remain scarce. Factors such as insufficient raw material circulation, high raw material costs eroding profits, and unclear policies in regions like Jiangxi and Anhui have led to a contraction in industry supply. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with low finished product inventories at manufacturers and ongoing pressure for order delivery, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, driven by rigid cost support and a tight supply-demand balance, ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Signals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate at Highs] During the night session on October 27, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,315 yuan/mt, reached a highest price of 21,340 yuan/mt and a lowest price of 21,185 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 21,255 yuan/mt, down 0.49%. The night session showed a retreat from highs, with the price center moving up before pulling back. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages continued their bullish alignment (MA5: 21,270.00 > MA10: 21,160.00 > MA20: 21,045.75 > MA60: 20,901.00), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick showed some change in the red bars, maintaining a golden cross (DIFF: 109.10, DEA: 81.06). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel but has experienced a pullback. Considering recent highs and lows (low: 20,640, high: around 21,365), resistance is expected in the 21,350–21,550 range, with support in the 20,650–20,850 range.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US September Inflation Data Falls Short of Expectations, Favorable Macro Environment Supports Stronger Aluminum Prices] During the night session on October 24, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,150 yuan/mt, with the highest price at 21,250 yuan/mt and the lowest price at 21,120 yuan/mt, finally closing at 21,245 yuan/mt, up 0.09%. The night session showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the trading center rising to around 21,170 yuan/mt. From a technical perspective, the MA moving averages continued their bullish alignment (MA5: 21,201 > MA10: 21,081.50 > MA20: 21,009.25 > MA60: 20,900.63), while the MACD 4-hour candlestick chart showed expanding red bars, maintaining a golden cross (DIFF: 94.04, DEA: 65.59). In terms of trend, SHFE aluminum remains in an upward channel. Based on recent highs and lows (low: 20,640, high: around 21,310), resistance is expected in the 21,350–21,550 range, with support in the 20,650–20,850 range.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Tight Aluminum Scrap Supply Drives Up Costs, Cast Aluminum Alloy Prices Hold Up Well but Demand Changes Require Attention] Currently, aluminum scrap supply in the market remains tight, pushing procurement costs even higher. To ensure order fulfillment, enterprises are generally purchasing at high prices, while low-priced sources are scarce, leading to a continuous rise in overall production costs and consequently driving up quotations. Overall demand remains resilient, coupled with low finished product inventories at manufacturers and persistent pressure for order delivery, providing some support to market prices. In the short term, supported by rigid cost factors and a tight supply-demand balance, ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices are expected to hold up well. Going forward, close attention should be paid to raw material supply, consumption performance, and inventory changes.

The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China this week was 62.4%, down 0.1% WoW, showing a characteristic of "stabilization during the peak season with internal divergence." Specifically, the operating rate for primary aluminum alloy rose 0.6 percentage points to 59.0%, as enterprise production schedules became more aligned, supported by stable restocking from downstream, and is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The operating rate for aluminum plate/sheet and strip fell 1 percentage point to 67.0%, impacted by declining curtain wall panel orders and high aluminum prices suppressing purchases, with weakening demand expectations strengthening, and it is anticipated to gradually enter the off-season range. The operating rate for aluminum wire and cable increased 0.4% to 64.4%, supported by the high-voltage sector, but tight shipments and slow cargo pick-up by State Grid limited the rebound potential. The operating rate for aluminum extrusion edged up to 53.7%, with automotive extrusion showing relatively robust growth driven by the year-end push for targets, while construction extrusion remained sluggish and PV extrusion faced production cuts. The operating rate for aluminum foil decreased 0.4 percentage points to 71.9%, with export stockpiling for holidays in packaging foil providing a buffer, but orders for some categories have started to weaken. The operating rate for secondary aluminum producers remained at 58.6%, with order resilience still present, but tight raw material supply, profit pressure, and policy uncertainties continued to constrain production flexibility. Considering the performance on both supply and demand sides, SMM expects the operating rate for the downstream aluminum processing industry to continue its stable trend next week.

11On October 17, the AICE 2025 SMM (14th) Aluminum Industry Annual Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), successfully concluded in Zhengzhou, Henan!