September Silver Ingot Exports Surge, Positive Momentum Set to Continue in October

According to customs data, exports of unwrought silver ingots with a purity ≥99.99% reached 525.79 mt in September 2025, up 28.71% MoM and 44.9% YoY. Cumulative silver ingot exports from January to September 2025 totaled 3,638.39 mt, up 20.68% YoY. Among these, exports under the processing trade method amounted to 478.59 mt, accounting for approximately 91% of total exports.

Regarding the SHFE/LME price ratio and export profitability, silver ingot export losses narrowed in September, with traders such as Hong Kong banks actively purchasing. Additionally, some smelters adjusted the ratio of large ingot exports to domestic small ingot supply due to the need to fulfill annual export quotas.

In October, liquidity issues in the London market worsened further, leading to a short squeeze in overseas markets and a sharp rise in spot premiums on the LME. However, domestic prices did not follow the increase quickly, opening the export window for ordinary trade. It is understood that almost all domestic smelters with processing trade qualifications focused primarily on large ingot exports in October, tightening spot supply in the domestic market and driving up premiums accordingly. Silver ingot exports are expected to maintain positive growth in October.